High school girls soccer

[HS Harry]

I have said all year that Division 2 North is an absolute hot mess. Nothing that has happened in the tourney changes my opinion. Stoneham enters the Final as the favorite, but Newburyport's ability to hlod off a solid Belmont entry shows that they have the capability to beat a more talented team. Playing at Manning is probably a slight advantage to Stoneham but not as great an advantage as some others would have against the Clippers. This isn't my favorite game on the schedule and although it may be close and exciting for the participants and their fans, it doesn't offer a lot to an "outsider" - and with that I will say good luck to the players and end it there to avoid being negative.

On the D1 side, I think both games present themselves as excellent contests. You have the battle of Cinderella teams in Woburn and the battle of Goliaths in Lynn. Let me start with two points. First, it is ridiculous that both games are scheduled for 2:30. Personally I like having the games in the same Division played back to back so that you can attract the larger crowd. Second, yes it is a disadvantage for A/B to travel to Lynn (and an advantage to Peabody). Even though Peabody didn't play a single game at Manning this year, its proximity for the Tanners is a very very slight help. So I would have loved a noon and 2:30 set in Woburn today. Here are my top 3 reasons Peabody will win:

1. HD. She is the best individual player in the tournament and the only one remaining in the North that can individually change a game on her own. A/B lost the first match in part because the Colonial defenders lost her for an instant, but that one slip up is all it takes.

2. Grit. Peabody is the tougher team with more to proove. In the tournemant emotion and attitude is critical and I think Peabody has the advantage there.

3. style. Peabody is comfortable playing their own brand of soccer. It isn't necessarily kick and run, but this group has been together for a long time and they really do work well together even if it means "when in doubt, kick it out" or lofting long balls to give their talented forwards a chance. and with a blustery wind imacting the game expect it to be harder to avoid defensive mistakes on bounding balls.

here are three reasons why A/B will win.

1. coaching. I'm not saying that the Peabody coaching is inferior, but in my opinion A/B is more capable of developing and implementing a game plan to beat Peabody.

2. Depth. Not that A/B will play 17 players and sub liberally, but from 1-11 A/B is just a little deeper and the fact is that Peabody will probably go with their starting 11 all afternoon.

3. luck. This is a pretty unscientific reason, but in this year of upsets and strange results, its tough to believe that the #1 seed will run the table for their first D1 North Title. A/B has been one of the strongest teams in E Mass down the stretch and that sets them up nicely to register the upset.

See you there!!

[Unregistered]

Excellent Post (almost)

Quite frankly, the AB coach is the primary reason the team is still in the tournament and parent whining aside it is coaching that will be a big factor going forward. That said, AB may have the coaching to give Peabody a tough match, but is unlikely to have the personnel to get it done. Parents will be unhappy either way, but since this is likely LB last season it doesn't matter.
Starting from the back, AB keeper is average to above avg. Back line is a bit shaky, especially if pressured. Midfield is aggressive but thoroughly unskilled. This will hurt in transition in both directions. Up top they possess but have a difficult time scoring. They always take one too many touches.
This creates two distinct and difficult to resolve problems. HD and Peabody will control the attacking third, virtually uncontested at times. There should be at least 3 goals by the end of the 1st half. On the AB attack, uncontested midfield will revert possession and/or long balls over their weak mids will be settled, distributed and countered in aggressive fashion, creating multiple chances for at least 2 more goals in the 2nd half. AB will need to break out of their game to have any scoring chances. Long ball and a little luck is not pretty, but may be the only chance they have.

The only real option available to AB is to play ugly, aggressive soccer. This tends to be what this type of mis-match devolves into anyway, but will likely be the strategy from the get-go. So ultimately it comes down to whether the refs call a tight match or "let them play".

While the assessment of AB strengths and (primarily) weaknesses is spot on, it is the error of omission that makes it only almost correct. The assumption that Peabody has no weaknesses is interesting. While I agree that they may control the middle without a problem and their strikers will have opportunities against a relatively weak AB defensive line, Peabody defense is not the best AB will have faced and they may get a few more opportunities than you might think. AB doesn't have the scoring threat of a C-C, which Peabody did a good job against so who knows.

Not sure how to assess the luck factor, but it will come into play as it did against Lexington. AB plays a lot of balls in the air so luck is a big factor. That combined with coaching will make the difference. Have to agree with original poster that there will be a lot of goals in this one, but I am leaning to a more balanced 3-2 or 4-2 win by Peabody.

[Unregistered]

While the assessment of AB strengths and (primarily) weaknesses is spot on, it is the error of omission that makes it only almost correct. The assumption that Peabody has no weaknesses is interesting. While I agree that they may control the middle without a problem and their strikers will have opportunities against a relatively weak AB defensive line, Peabody defense is not the best AB will have faced and they may get a few more opportunities than you might think. AB doesn't have the scoring threat of a C-C, which Peabody did a good job against so who knows.

Not sure how to assess the luck factor, but it will come into play as it did against Lexington. AB plays a lot of balls in the air so luck is a big factor. That combined with coaching will make the difference. Have to agree with original poster that there will be a lot of goals in this one, but I am leaning to a more balanced 3-2 or 4-2 win by Peabody.

Agreed. Peabody is the stronger team. More of a scoring threat. Stronger in the middle. Strong all around. I guess I'm just questioning some of the AB weaknesses. They don't have any scroring leaders, but it really only takes one goal. They are small in the middle, but they make up for that by being fiesty. Their midfield was the best I've seen it at Lexington. Their defense/goalie has let in 4 goals since their last loss on 9/22 - 12 games. They shut down L-S, C-C and Lexington of late. The earlier prediction of Peabody scoring 4 goals seems a bit outlandish. I do think that HD is a big threat against the strong but slow center Defense of AB, but the other pieces of the defensive third just need to be aware and ready. I think it will be a good matchup.

One issue today is weather. The long boot ball isn't going to work with the wind that is expected. So an earlier poster who suggested playing "dirty soccer" may have to rethink that. The game is going to have to be played on the ground. The refs need to keep control right from the start.

[Unregistered]

While the assessment of AB strengths and (primarily) weaknesses is spot on, it is the error of omission that makes it only almost correct. The assumption that Peabody has no weaknesses is interesting. While I agree that they may control the middle without a problem and their strikers will have opportunities against a relatively weak AB defensive line, Peabody defense is not the best AB will have faced and they may get a few more opportunities than you might think. AB doesn't have the scoring threat of a C-C, which Peabody did a good job against so who knows.

Not sure how to assess the luck factor, but it will come into play as it did against Lexington. AB plays a lot of balls in the air so luck is a big factor. That combined with coaching will make the difference. Have to agree with original poster that there will be a lot of goals in this one, but I am leaning to a more balanced 3-2 or 4-2 win by Peabody.

I too must say that the Peabody defense is a bigger problem that most have admitted. There is some frailty on their back line, and an aggressive A-B attack may be able to take advantage there. More pressure on the Peabody attack to score more goals than their defense allows sums it up.

[Unregistered]

LB announced several weeks ago that he is returning next year so not sure where you get your info. It might cast a bit of a pall on the rest of your predictions. The one thing that is correct above is that there will be parental whining either way. After all it is high school soccer.

He is around because the prevailing attitiude is that you can't touch the high school
coaches no matter how bad they are. They win a meaningless league title and that maybe good enough to establish them. Here is an example: Masco girls has gone thru some of the best players and teams in the state the last 7-8 years.Best they have done is get to a North final once. But as long as the coach wins the Cape Ann league who cares?
I have witnessed a number of them over the years in very "reputable" schools run
the craziest crap you can imagine only to get away with it.
How do you change that? AD's are always thinking that parents are stupid anyway and
even worse coaches that run archaic methods of training,dealing and motivating players
think they know it all when they are actualluy in the dark ages.

[Unregistered]

I too must say that the Peabody defense is a bigger problem that most have admitted. There is some frailty on their back line, and an aggressive A-B attack may be able to take advantage there. More pressure on the Peabody attack to score more goals than their defense allows sums it up.

Have to strongly disagree about the Peabody D. Although they had a few hiccups during the season, it is a strong unit. They completely took AO from CC out of game the other night right from the beginning. They have very good speed, communicate well & help each other out tremendously. If Peabody lacks anywhere I would say it's in the middle where they win a large amount of balls, but tend to turn it over soon after.

[Unregistered]

I have said all year that Division 2 North is an absolute hot mess. Nothing that has happened in the tourney changes my opinion. Stoneham enters the Final as the favorite, but Newburyport's ability to hlod off a solid Belmont entry shows that they have the capability to beat a more talented team. Playing at Manning is probably a slight advantage to Stoneham but not as great an advantage as some others would have against the Clippers.

Newburyport is a talented team, but they have been coached to play a thuggish kick-and-run style. (I wonder how many of their opponents this team has injured this season.) Stoneham's advantage at Manning is that they are playing on a big turf field, not a small cow pasture. The Bad Dogs will have to run longer distances to mug the Spartans, or whatever they are called, while many of their long kicks will roll harmlessly out of bounds instead of dying in a clump of grass. Still, I give Stoneham no better than an even chance. To gain control of the midfield Newburyport will relentlessly foul, and foul hard, as they did against Belmont. And given the sorry state of MIAA officiating, probably the only yellow card handed out will be to Stoneham's coach, for protesting.

[Unregistered]

Have to strongly disagree about the Peabody D. Although they had a few hiccups during the season, it is a strong unit. They completely took AO from CC out of game the other night right from the beginning. They have very good speed, communicate well & help each other out tremendously. If Peabody lacks anywhere I would say it's in the middle where they win a large amount of balls, but tend to turn it over soon after.

Peabody has let in 14 goals in 19 games. AB has also let in 14 goals in 20 games. Both have shut down AO in their last outings. So maybe it will come down to the other areas of the game - namely HD.

[Unregistered]

To gain control of the midfield Newburyport will relentlessly foul, and foul hard, as they did against Belmont. And given the sorry state of MIAA officiating, probably the only yellow card handed out will be to Stoneham's coach, for protesting.

Luckily we head to 3 man crews. Hopefully the better refs will be available and assigned. The brutal muggings and reckless play I have witnessed allowed at both boy's and girl's games this year have been embarassing and scary. With girl's games a bit worse, which is incredible.

[Unregistered]

Luckily we head to 3 man crews. Hopefully the better refs will be available and assigned. The brutal muggings and reckless play I have witnessed allowed at both boy's and girl's games this year have been embarassing and scary. With girl's games a bit worse, which is incredible.

agreed. While I have seen a few good ref teams, most have been wildly inconsistent. Do not call anything on a mugging that results in an injury in the middle of the field, but then see a bump (or flop) at the edge of the box and call a PK.

While 3 person crews make the most sense...would be nice if the 2 people crews were fit enough to actually make it up and down the field to make the calls...standing around 50 yards from the action and making 'eagle eye' calls is useless

[Unregistered]

The only thing that matters

HS soccer is random. Luck is all that matters.
Is Chelmsford any good or did luck really impact that out come of games they have won so far? Do you think Andover would lose again to North Andover or could AB possibly beat Lexington if they played today? Could Lexington even beat Winchester again?
That is what makes it fun and more like an NCAA pool than anything else. Its a long season, random match ups create games where opposing styles go up against each other and no one can guess the outcome.
Some people complain about coaches and injuries and these two things probably have the biggest impact on outcomes and they are... you guessed it, random. It is not like club where you pick the best fit. Nobody knows when they start playing soccer at age 4 who their HS coach is going to be and unless they move or go to private school they are stuck with the coach and the other players on the team.

[Unregistered]

AO is no HD

Peabody has let in 14 goals in 19 games. AB has also let in 14 goals in 20 games. Both have shut down AO in their last outings. So maybe it will come down to the other areas of the game - namely HD.

Shutting down AO is not too difficult and C-C had no supporting cast. HD actually distributes as well as she scores. AB midfield will not be able to offer enough help to their back line. It will be an embarrassment.

[Unregistered]

HS soccer is random. Luck is all that matters.

Maybe. But I think that what I predicted a month ago, in post #521 of this thread -

Medfield should repeat in D2, this time with an unbeaten season, now that they have won and drawn with the only other competitive team in its league, Dover-Sherborn. Medfield has skilled players and a high-tempo long-ball style that is not fun to watch but even less fun to play against, especially when you are encountering it for the first time in the tournament.

is going to happen. If it does, is that just luck?

[Unregistered]

Think Medfield will have a tough time today....

[Unregistered]

Think Medfield will have a tough time today....

I hope you're right.