U13 Girls Spring Predictions Thread

[beentheredonethat]

Wow, back away from my computer a while for a practice and the discussion takes off. So much respond to.

Makes sense. I'd also throw coaching in as a factor. Let me qualify this by saying that I do not know who the MPS coach is in this age group, and I'm too lazy to look it up :). So before the MPS folks lose their minds, please know that I am not including them in this.

In my estimation of the 5 "Maple" teams you have to rank the coaching quality:

Stars/NEFC
Aztecs
Scorpions
Pioneers

Players and parents who believe in their coach are less likely to leave his or her team.

Based upon our experience to date, I believe that this is only partly true. I have found that coaching really only holds a team together for so long and unless it produces results that put the team into the upper competitive realms the talent still leaves it. Look at 88’s last few CRU teams. You couldn’t get a finer soccer coach or person to work with your child, yet anyone who knows the situation can confirm that he had a constant outflow of talent because the teams never made it into the upper divisions of MAPLE. It then becomes sort of a self fulfilling prophecy. Once talent starts to leave without being replaced, the team’s effectiveness suffers, and that accelerates the out flow of talent.

Stars are the front runners. They will pick up impact players that can put the biscuit in the basket. Their college placement and reputation sets them apart. Kids come from neighboring states, and the far corners of Massachusetts to play on their older teams, and this is unlikely to change.

BTDT is correct about the consolidation that will happen. Bolts had a decent U13 Girl's side a few years back and lost the heart of the team, striker, midfielder, and central defender, and never recovered.

If you are talking about the now U19 Stars team, then I can vouch for this happening. If I remember correctly Onthree was the coach of that Bolts team and she decided to step back from coaching club soccer. Her daughter was on that team and probably the highest profile player. I believe her daughter’s decision to join the Stars had an impact on the other girl’s decisions to join it as well. As I have often written, talent follows talent. What people apparently don’t realize is that this migration is not a phenomena limited to just this age group. There is a lot of history to support that it happens every year when an age group reaches their U13 year.

As far as the Stars being able to pick up whomever they want, I think that statement shows your unfamiliarity with the age group. At the younger ages the Stars brand is not the white hot star that it was just a couple of years ago. The club is maturing and has now had its fair share of mediocre teams. It is not that the magic is gone, rather that it is just not the sure fire bet it was once perceived to be. They do have viable competition for the top end talent.

If Nefc can't score BTDT will be the first one to jump. He seems very analytical when weighing the pros and cons of youth soccer and will not wait to see how things shake out. IMHO

I find the musings about what I will do with my daughter pretty amusing. None of you are really on target because I think you are incorrectly assuming I weigh teams strictly on the basis of the amount of exposure they will bring my daughter. I will admit that it is a factor but it doesn’t actually carry the weight with me that many of you assume. The single largest factor as far as I am concerned is the quality of the coach. What I look for are coaches who know how to actually teach the game and can see the players as more than just a paycheck or a trophy on their mantle. As far as setting up a run at a possible college career goes, I also evaluate the team path much differently than a lot of you seem to do. At this point I am not a big believer in the benefits of raw exposure in the recruiting process and don’t see the value of doing a whole lot of travel to college showcases to get it. Quite frankly it costs too much and doesn’t deliver any special advantage as far as I can tell. As far as I am concerned relationships are far more important in the recruiting process. Though I do recognize that some amount of that sort of travel will undoubtedly required, I see it as more of a time limited thing rather than the long protracted process that the prevailing wisdom seems to have people believing in these days. I also don’t buy the notion that at this age you have to commit to a whole lot of travel for development purposes. While I do recognize that the world of club soccer has pretty much out grown MAPLE I don’t believe that means you have to become a soccer gypsy. I actually think you can get an awful lot done within your club just by playing boys or by staying local and playing older girls teams. As far as league play goes I think that at this stage a good slate of games against strong regional competition combined with attending a limited number of top level tournaments is all you really need in order to lay a good foundation for whatever may happen later. Though I never rule out changing courses to fit a changing situation, I hope you can understand that philosophically I am pretty comfortable with the choices we have made to date and the course we have laid out.

Who's to say that regional players last year automatically translates into regional players this year or even in subsequent years. We're talking about 13 year old girls folks. You all need to a get a grip on reality!

Your post has the type of bitterness you typically hear from a person who at one time bought the dream hook, line, and sinker and then found out that not everyone ended up taking part in it. The underlying notion you seem to have that things happen naturally and you have all of the time in the world for the opportunities to materialize really isn’t correct. Of course there are a whole lot of variables involved with all of this and they can absolutely prevent a young player from reaching their potential. We all know that happens all of the time. What rarely happens, however, is a kid coming out of nowhere to establish themselves as an elite level player. The truth of the matter is the bulk of the elite level players will have already been identified by the end of this year and if a player is not in the mix by then they probably never will be. Though I wouldn’t fall on my sword saying it has never happened but just ask yourself how likely it would be for a player to make the U16 US National Team having not been identified in prior years. The truth of the matter is the U13 year is actually the first year of the whole process so talking about the things we are talking about is not over the top. It actually is right on time.

[Unregistered]

Current U17 Stars ECNL has a few ex-Bolts as well as a sprinkling of top players from other clubs. The lure of Stars will continue to be tough to beat, especially once ECNL regionalization is complete and travel costs consist of the same or fewer plane trips, booked cheaply months in advance, than the other Mass, non-ECNL destination teams. All in, for example, MPS Renegades U17, by all definitions, a top destination team at this age group, spent more over the last few years than Stars. And the players didn't receive near the training nor exposure. The desire to stay at an existing Club is very strong, but the reality is that there are likely only about 2 teams worth of quality players per age group, and talent seeks talent. Pull the top scorer, playmaker, and defender off most U15 or under teams and they'll struggle to remain competitive. This is what is coming to a team near you. It happened to our daughter.

[beentheredonethat]

Current U17 Stars ECNL has a few ex-Bolts as well as a sprinkling of top players from other clubs. The lure of Stars will continue to be tough to beat, especially once ECNL regionalization is complete and travel costs consist of the same or fewer plane trips, booked cheaply months in advance, than the other Mass, non-ECNL destination teams. All in, for example, MPS Renegades U17, by all definitions, a top destination team at this age group, spent more over the last few years than Stars. And the players didn't receive near the training nor exposure. The desire to stay at an existing Club is very strong, but the reality is that there are likely only about 2 teams worth of quality players per age group, and talent seeks talent. Pull the top scorer, playmaker, and defender off most U15 or under teams and they'll struggle to remain competitive. This is what is coming to a team near you. It happened to our daughter.

I personally think you put way too much stock in the Stars allure in this age group and assign too much value to the ECNL, especially now if it is going to be more regionalized than nationalized. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that the ECNL is without merit, but if they start building regional leagues how much different will it be from NEP then? Also keep in mind the one problem all of the US Club leagues will always face is the inconsistency that results when teams are admitted based soley upon their club name rather than on field results. It still remains to be seen that the ECNL will be the highest level of competition.

Clearly you believe that there is only one way to advance a player to the college level. You and I could probably debate that point forever and I doubt either would fully conceed the value of the others approach. That said, I would hope that you could at least recognize that there are viable alternatives and not everyone sees the world through a Star lense. I do think that a lot of familes are going to make decisions based upon how they perceive the ECNL. Some will come to believe in it and follow the path you took, while others won't. I doubt however that it will be the slam dunk you seem to believe it will be.

[Unregistered]

I have just one question on the maple schedule, can there be a game on May 22nd when that is the weekend the round robin is scheduled to be played (21st & 22nd)?

[Unregistered]

Dr. Z says.............................................. ....

Three important items to consider when discussing the destination teams.

First, the U17 Stars is a bad model for the U13 age group. The U17 Stars won the State Cup every year except U11. The Stars player who came over from Bolts was on a team that consistently lost to Stars. The Bolts team wasn't very good. We are talking about consolidation of talent onto the Stars U13 team, but the Stars U13 team is not a team that consistently beats all the other teams, and they have only been a finalist the last two years. So it's a bad example.

Second, I saw a post above about how the KD and FM teams combine. This shows a lack of understanding of the organization of Scorpions. Of course there are a couple of individual players on the KD team that could play for the FM team, and Scorpions always pulls players from it's so called Premier team to its Elite team at tryouts. However, anyone that has seen the teams or knows the club can confirm that these are true A and B squads. There is no combining to do. The top players from the KD team will be raised up to the FM team if the FM team doesn't bring in other players.

Finally, what complicates the theories and predictions is the girl element. You could argue that the ECNL and DAP are very different things and the DAP is a USSF program and the ECNL is just trying to be the DAP and not actually the DAP, and you could say that this is the real reason you don't see a flock of players to the ECNL from standard clubs, unlike the flock you see to DAP at the first DAP tryout. But an underlying factor is that these are girls, and they are far less likely to jump to a new team. They value team, teammates, relationships more. So you don't see the jumps in large sums. You see a player here or there each year until U18.

In age groups like U17, where you have a team far and away the best, it's less of an issue. In an age group like the current U13, it's going to be harder for a team to have that pull.

[Unregistered]

Your post has the type of bitterness you typically hear from a person who at one time bought the dream hook, line, and sinker and then found out that not everyone ended up taking part in it. The underlying notion you seem to have that things happen naturally and you have all of the time in the world for the opportunities to materialize really isn’t correct. Of course there are a whole lot of variables involved with all of this and they can absolutely prevent a young player from reaching their potential. We all know that happens all of the time. What rarely happens, however, is a kid coming out of nowhere to establish themselves as an elite level player. The truth of the matter is the bulk of the elite level players will have already been identified by the end of this year and if a player is not in the mix by then they probably never will be. Though I wouldn’t fall on my sword saying it has never happened but just ask yourself how likely it would be for a player to make the U16 US National Team having not been identified in prior years. The truth of the matter is the U13 year is actually the first year of the whole process so talking about the things we are talking about is not over the top. It actually is right on time.

BTDT, Thank you for your opinion. But it is just not correct. There are many instances in of players who were not on a "national" radar at u12/u13/u14 and then appeared there at u15 and above. Similarly, there are many instances of a player making the regional pool as a younger player and then not making it in subsequent years because he/she was passed by players who were previously considered below their level.

It is simply not correct to state that if you're not identified by the end of u13, you probably won't be.

[beentheredonethat]

BTDT, Thank you for your opinion. But it is just not correct. There are many instances in of players who were not on a "national" radar at u12/u13/u14 and then appeared there at u15 and above. Similarly, there are many instances of a player making the regional pool as a younger player and then not making it in subsequent years because he/she was passed by players who were previously considered below their level.

It is simply not correct to state that if you're not identified by the end of u13, you probably won't be.

I don't doubt that there is an occasional player that pops up on the radar for the first time around U14 which is why I used the word "probably", but I still think you are talking about the exceptions rather than the rule. Even then think about the players that you are really talking about. I seriously doubt that they go from being unknown one moment to known the next. I think it is more likely that the players are probably well recognized within their local arena and the fact that they were identified late has more to do with earlier decisions not to participate in programs like ODP or perhaps even club soccer altogether. If you are trying to make the case that it is common place for a kid who essentially is a role player at U13 to suddenly emerge at U16 to make the US National Team I think that you are grasping at straws. Might it happen, sure, but my guess would be that it would happen so rarely that you would have a better chance winning the lottery.

[Unregistered]

Stars will be one of the better teams by U16. Count on it. It's wishful thinking for U13 and under parents to think the status quo will remain. It won't. After the shakeout, Stars will be among the 2 or at most 3 destination teams. They have proven to improve steadily through a combination of recruiting, training, and coaching.

Responding to BTDT, I'm not sold 100% on ECNL. It's likely there will be a non-ECNL destination team every year, and this team might switch about somewhat. Any destination team doing national level travel will spend a lot of money. ECNL, once they no longer participate in USYSA regional and national events will be a better bargain, although all these teams will still spend close to $10,000 a year per player.

I understand at U13 how players and parents hope their existing team will morph into a destination team, but be careful what you wish for. It gets expensive. The pressure for your child to keep their standing on the team increases. It's not for the faint of heart. An older daughter started and played tons for 5 years, but then began to share time right at U16, which made her college search and placement a whole lot tougher. From experience, when a team implodes it happens fast, so be prepared. Don't be blinded by wishful thinking.

Dr. Z says.............................................. ....

Three important items to consider when discussing the destination teams.

First, the U17 Stars is a bad model for the U13 age group. The U17 Stars won the State Cup every year except U11. The Stars player who came over from Bolts was on a team that consistently lost to Stars. The Bolts team wasn't very good. We are talking about consolidation of talent onto the Stars U13 team, but the Stars U13 team is not a team that consistently beats all the other teams, and they have only been a finalist the last two years. So it's a bad example.

There are at least 3, make that 4 former Bolts on the Stars U17 ECNL team, not just 1. The current U17 Bolts team would be better had these kids stayed, and a whole lot better had the team picked up a few more quality players. This team is a perfect example of what happens when a team implodes, rather than improves.

Our family has had a few kids in club soccer, and BTDT is correct in warning current parents that around U13 musical chairs starts. Keep your head on a swivel, and be quick to grab your seat.

[beentheredonethat]

Dr. Z says.............................................. ....

Three important items to consider when discussing the destination teams.

First, the U17 Stars is a bad model for the U13 age group. The U17 Stars won the State Cup every year except U11. The Stars player who came over from Bolts was on a team that consistently lost to Stars. The Bolts team wasn't very good. We are talking about consolidation of talent onto the Stars U13 team, but the Stars U13 team is not a team that consistently beats all the other teams, and they have only been a finalist the last two years. So it's a bad example.

Second, I saw a post above about how the KD and FM teams combine. This shows a lack of understanding of the organization of Scorpions. Of course there are a couple of individual players on the KD team that could play for the FM team, and Scorpions always pulls players from it's so called Premier team to its Elite team at tryouts. However, anyone that has seen the teams or knows the club can confirm that these are true A and B squads. There is no combining to do. The top players from the KD team will be raised up to the FM team if the FM team doesn't bring in other players.

Finally, what complicates the theories and predictions is the girl element. You could argue that the ECNL and DAP are very different things and the DAP is a USSF program and the ECNL is just trying to be the DAP and not actually the DAP, and you could say that this is the real reason you don't see a flock of players to the ECNL from standard clubs, unlike the flock you see to DAP at the first DAP tryout. But an underlying factor is that these are girls, and they are far less likely to jump to a new team. They value team, teammates, relationships more. So you don't see the jumps in large sums. You see a player here or there each year until U18.

In age groups like U17, where you have a team far and away the best, it's less of an issue. In an age group like the current U13, it's going to be harder for a team to have that pull.

Dr .. Good analysis. I am not sure, however, that I buy the notion that everyone will stay put. I personally think the relative mediocrity of the top teams in this age group makes it even more likely there will be more movement than less. Most of the parents of the stand out players I know are looking at their individual team situations and pretty much coming to the same conclusion that all of the teams have serious flaws. Realistically none of these teams have a strong enough talent base at the present to compete favorably on the regional and national paths that their clubs have chosen for them. As constituted they are all pretty much middle of the pack teams that are going to need a talent make over to be anything more.

Truthfully I am already seeing parents starting to evaluate the likelihood of their team winning the impending recruiting wars and formulating possible options. I see this gathering momentum through the spring as the teams start to venture out of state and face some of the tougher teams that are out there. My expereince has beeen that once they start seeing real top level teams, all of the kids themselves typically start to realize that if they want to compete at that level that they need to surround themselves with good players and they start to pull other players towards them. While I agree with you about girls being more concious of team chemistry, I think you underestimate the bonds that kids develop through programs like ODP and the impact technology is having on this situation. I know for a fact that through Facebook and texting that my daughter has developed some pretty strong friendships with a lot of kids on different teams (some even from different states) and in some instances those relationships are more important to her than ones with her current teammates. I certainly wouldn't go out on a limb a say that the group she is with now is so important to her that she never leave it.

[beentheredonethat]

Stars will be one of the better teams by U16. Count on it. It's wishful thinking for U13 and under parents to think the status quo will remain. It won't. After the shakeout, Stars will be among the 2 or at most 3 destination teams. They have proven to improve steadily through a combination of recruiting, training, and coaching.

Responding to BTDT, I'm not sold 100% on ECNL. It's likely there will be a non-ECNL destination team every year, and this team might switch about somewhat. Any destination team doing national level travel will spend a lot of money. ECNL, once they no longer participate in USYSA regional and national events will be a better bargain, although all these teams will still spend close to $10,000 a year per player.

I understand at U13 how players and parents hope their existing team will morph into a destination team, but be careful what you wish for. It gets expensive. The pressure for your child to keep their standing on the team increases. It's not for the faint of heart. An older daughter started and played tons for 5 years, but then began to share time right at U16, which made her college search and placement a whole lot tougher. From experience, when a team implodes it happens fast, so be prepared. Don't be blinded by wishful thinking.



There are at least 3, make that 4 former Bolts on the Stars U17 ECNL team, not just 1. The current U17 Bolts team would be better had these kids stayed, and a whole lot better had the team picked up a few more quality players. This team is a perfect example of what happens when a team implodes, rather than improves.

Our family has had a few kids in club soccer, and BTDT is correct in warning current parents that around U13 musical chairs starts. Keep your head on a swivel, and be quick to grab your seat.

Thank you for this post. It contains some very good advice. Most of the parents I talk to in this age are going through this for the first time and are not really aware that teams actually implode all the time. Do you remember the U19 Scorpions team? Imploded at the end of their U15 year a few days after it competed in the State Cup finals. That situation appeared to be crazy but it showed me just how tenuous these top level teams can be. Believe it or not, from what I have seen over the years the destination teams are necessarily based on who has the best win loss record. I think that there are a lot more factors than some people are willing to admit.

I agree with you about the destination teams. I think that there will be two. An ECNL one and a non ECNL one. I also agree that being associated with one is not nearly all that it is cracked up to be regardless of the path. For the record, and this may shock some people, I actually do think the Stars will be the ECNL destination team. I just don't think that it will be "THE" team in the state. I personally think that honor will go to either NEFC or MPS. As I have written before, I believe that location plays a much bigger role in this than people want to admit.

[Unregistered]

Thank you for this post. It contains some very good advice. Most of the parents I talk to in this age are going through this for the first time and are not really aware that teams actually implode all the time. Do you remember the U19 Scorpions team? Imploded at the end of their U15 year a few days after it competed in the State Cup finals. That situation appeared to be crazy but it showed me just how tenuous these top level teams can be. Believe it or not, from what I have seen over the years the destination teams are necessarily based on who has the best win loss record. I think that there are a lot more factors than some people are willing to admit.

I agree with you about the destination teams. I think that there will be two. An ECNL one and a non ECNL one. I also agree that being associated with one is not nearly all that it is cracked up to be regardless of the path.

We've seen the migration of core team members from the Scorps to other clubs for many years. All it takes it a few disgruntled players and parents to convince the rest to move. The new club benefits as well as the girls that moved on. I know a couple of the current teams are thinking about this now for next year.

[Unregistered]

Some top drama ahead in this age group as everyone attempts to use TS to recruit talent this spring. Power rankings, all star lists, geographical arguments, club histories, crank parent pseudo experts, shamen and prognosticators. I cannot wait!

Didn't take long, did it.

[Unregistered]

BTDT has one drum and he beats it to death. Now his daughter is using facebook to recruit for her club.

[beentheredonethat]

BTDT has one drum and he beats it to death. Now his daughter is using facebook to recruit for her club.

Sorry you don't find what I write to be of any value but I do want to clarify that we are not involved in some grand conspiracy. If someone asks me an honest question, I try to give them an answer. If someone engages in what I construe to be a constructive dialog, I will engage with them. I look at a forum as a place to share opinions and experience. If you want to dog that, go ahead. You bashing me is not going to change the realities of what is taking place. If you honestly don't think that the things that I write about are factual, that is your prerogative, but do yourself a favor and keep your head on a swivel just in case I am right.

[Unregistered]

BTDT has one drum and he beats it to death. Now his daughter is using facebook to recruit for her club.

To be fair, many 13-year-old girls are using facebook as a way to communicate. They find other kids they like and they try to get together; at a mall, at a school function or at a soccer field. Many are trying to attract other players to their teams, because they like the other players.

No sure what is on facebook, but I am sure it is normal, everyday 13-year-old behavior.

I do not think it is right to single out any 13-year-old.