It could never be argued that the National Women’s Soccer League has the kind of disparity that exists in just about every other major league across the globe. The Chicago Red Stars, bottom of the table only a year ago, are now headed back to the playoffs. The Seattle Reign played in the NWSL Championship last November; they were already eliminated from this postseason before playing their final two matches.
Only last week, the Houston Dash played the San Diego Wave — a team much better than their record would indicate — and beat them 2-0. The last-place Dash also took down the fifth-place North Carolina Courage 3-0 back in May. These types of things just don’t happen elsewhere.
Despite the “on any given day” results that still pop up every so often, 2024 has been a very different kind of year in the NWSL. A clear top four clubs have emerged — Orlando Pride, Washington Spirit, Gotham FC and Kansas City Current — separating themselves from the rest of the pack in a way that’s never happened before.
Only 13 points separated first from 12th last season. This year, if you normalize things to a per-game level, the Wave’s Shield-winning points total in the 12-team league would put them in fifth place right now. A whopping 35 points separate first-place Orlando Pride from 12th-place San Diego at the moment. The spread expands to 37 points once you fold in 13th-place San Diego and last-place Houston. You could fit the Wave’s entire 2023 points total inside the difference between first and last in 2024.
We need to identify just how strange this season is compared not only to last year, but to much of the league’s history, as well. Does this all-time level of stratification represent a new normal, or will this be a blip before settling down next year? First, let’s unpack what exactly makes the 2024 campaign so unique. Then, I’ll try to hypothesize why it’s happening, and why the league might start looking a lot less like 2023, and a lot more like 2024.
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