DRAFT boys U12-U18 strength ratings

[lastplanet]

Hi,

DRAFT OR-WA LastPlanet 2013 boys ratings are ready:
Take a look and let me know errors that you see in the match data.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...nks/index.html
Email corrections to me at lastplanetranking@gmail.com

I'll post to the LastPlanet website after I do a bit more clean up, and might wait til 2-3 league games are in before I post stable ratings to the website. Until then 2012 ratings will stay up on the LP website: http://lastplanetranking.************

These draft ratings are based on the 2013 summer tournament data. These are DRAFT, and though I've done a lot of clean up on the match database, there are still errors. You can click on a team name (after you click on a rating table) and it'll take you to a pdf for the team. On the 2nd page of that pdf are all the games for the team in my match database.

Some things to keep in mind for these draft files:
* Oregon ratings will be sketchy until the fall league starts. There were many name changes for the 2013-2014 and reorganization of teams, so more data is needed to get these sorted out.

* The ratings are based on 13 months of matches but the ratings are weighted (heavily) towards the more recent 2-3 months of games. On the pdf, you can see how a team changed after try-outs (or after key players added or dropped).

* Once the fall league data comes in, the ratings will change a bit. 1) new teams that didn't play summer will appear and 2) team rosters stabilize.

* In the tables you see have teams that are from 2012-2013 and don't exist anymore. The final version won't include teams that have not played in the last 3 months, but I included them here in order to ferret out teams that changed names without changing their roster. I've heard that WA Timbers teams reorganized, but it looks to me that some of the WA Timbers Reds are the same as the old VUSA Reds teams. For now, 2013 WA Timbers Reds are treated as brand new teams.

* Only teams with 7+ games are listed on the main tables. You can see all teams on the All_Bxx_ranks.html file. Don't make much of the rating of a team with only 3-5 games.

* I have the B02s listed to help me figure out 02 teams that played up in a tourney but didn't list their age. I won't be rating the B02s past this stage. I start with U12s when games are 11v11.

* I have B94s listed, but I won't include those either in the final.

--LP

[Unregistered]

Thanks!

Thanks for all your continued work on this, this is great!

[Unregistered]

This is great...thanks!

Wow...thanks for your all your hard work and willingness to share. It's much appreciated!

[lastplanet]

I've updated the draft ranks with corrections that WA and OR folks have sent in. It's here:

http://lastplanetranking.***********...h-ratings.html

One big change. I scale all teams to the median WA-OR U13 team. It doesn't change how you use the ratings since only the DIFFERENCE in rating matters. But now you can easily compare across ages and find comparable strength teams in different age groups. Also if you put your team in the wrong age group, it doesn't change the team's strength rating. Read about the ratings mean in the FAQ on the blog. These ratings are predictions about match-up between teams.

I'll work next week on getting all the fall league matches entered. It might be a couple weeks before I get that data into the analyses. More teams and more head-banging trying to match cryptic names with teams and clubs.

Note, I'm still working to get the Oregon teams sorted out. There were so many name changes last year and little info about which teams are playing under what new names. I think I have the WA Timbers now sorted, Bend FC is ok, but Crossfire Oregon teams are surely appearing twice under old and new names or wrong name altogether. Also some WA Timbers games are probably with the wrong age since age have same names but ofter the age of the team is unlisted (and teams up in age not infrequently).

Cheers,

LP

P.S. You can read more about the ratings on the blog and the background. This is part of a project to develop predictive models for soccer teams that can be applied to "big data" (big = many teams, many diverse leagues, cross-ages).

P.S.S. And check out the G01 ratings. The boys project is ranking across ages but just WA-OR; the G01 girls is ranking across all Western states.

[Unregistered]

I've updated the draft ranks with corrections that WA and OR folks have sent in. It's here:

http://lastplanetranking.***********...h-ratings.html

One big change. I scale all teams to the median WA-OR U13 team. It doesn't change how you use the ratings since only the DIFFERENCE in rating matters. But now you can easily compare across ages and find comparable strength teams in different age groups. Also if you put your team in the wrong age group, it doesn't change the team's strength rating. Read about the ratings mean in the FAQ on the blog. These ratings are predictions about match-up between teams.

I'll work next week on getting all the fall league matches entered. It might be a couple weeks before I get that data into the analyses. More teams and more head-banging trying to match cryptic names with teams and clubs.

Note, I'm still working to get the Oregon teams sorted out. There were so many name changes last year and little info about which teams are playing under what new names. I think I have the WA Timbers now sorted, Bend FC is ok, but Crossfire Oregon teams are surely appearing twice under old and new names or wrong name altogether. Also some WA Timbers games are probably with the wrong age since age have same names but ofter the age of the team is unlisted (and teams up in age not infrequently).

Cheers,

LP

P.S. You can read more about the ratings on the blog and the background. This is part of a project to develop predictive models for soccer teams that can be applied to "big data" (big = many teams, many diverse leagues, cross-ages).

P.S.S. And check out the G01 ratings. The boys project is ranking across ages but just WA-OR; the G01 girls is ranking across all Western states.

Great work. For the boys U11, I believe that the PCU strikers and the SESC strikers are the same team. SESC is able to play in the OPL under PCU sponsorship.

[lastplanet]

Thanks! I fixed that but it won't appear until I update again. --LP

[lastplanet]

I posted another update to the draft WA-OR boys rankings, this time with the first 1-2 fall league games. The only OR league I have is the OPL. I'm not as familiar with the other OR leagues (e.g. outside of Portland), so if you know of ones I'm missing, just let me know.

http://lastplanetranking.************/2013/09/draft-2013-strength-ratings.html

I'll be updating the main blog and match predictor to use the 2013 ratings over the next week.

I'm futzing with the way I present the strength rating. I'm switching to something that looks more like an Elo rating, which is easier to remember. The top HS teams are 2000+ and the best teams reach that strength at U17-18. A difference of 100 means the better team scores 2x as fast (e.g. for every goal scored by the weaker team, the stronger team scores on average twice). A difference of 200 means the better team scores 4x as fast.

--LP

[Unregistered]

I posted another update to the draft WA-OR boys rankings, this time with the first 1-2 fall league games. The only OR league I have is the OPL. I'm not as familiar with the other OR leagues (e.g. outside of Portland), so if you know of ones I'm missing, just let me know.

http://lastplanetranking.************/2013/09/draft-2013-strength-ratings.html

I'll be updating the main blog and match predictor to use the 2013 ratings over the next week.

I'm futzing with the way I present the strength rating. I'm switching to something that looks more like an Elo rating, which is easier to remember. The top HS teams are 2000+ and the best teams reach that strength at U17-18. A difference of 100 means the better team scores 2x as fast (e.g. for every goal scored by the weaker team, the stronger team scores on average twice). A difference of 200 means the better team scores 4x as fast.

--LP

Looks good until you get to the B94s. The teams are now officially U19s and many are off to college. Some teams will be back for 2014 State Cup in late Spring. Not sure how you only posted two teams, missing FC Portland Navy 94, OSSA (now Crossfire Oregon) 94 Green, and WT Copa 94. These teams, and RVT (former RVSC) Timbers 94, had quite a bit of history over the years and may have played in 2013 summer tournaments but not shown in your rankings. HSC? Do you mean the team that played in Director's State Cup(rec and lower classic level teams)? Thanks for the rankings though!