Can the US win WC 2010?

[TL65]

i saw this on another fourm and thought it might be a good ice breaker even if the answer is obvious.

"DaveC" had this answer on another forum:

1.Anything is possible.

2. There are always exceptions.

3. This question is the exception to number 1.

[IgnatiusJReilly]

Not likely but any reasonable level of success will bode well for the further development of soccer in the US.

[TigerWatcher]

Si Se Puede!

Sure we can. If the rest of the world comes down with the pig flu at convenient intervals. We just need to put our team in isolation and then send some infected flying pigs into our opponent's training camps at just the right times.

[TL65]

So you're saying that we may win when pigs fly?

I wonder if the NT performance has that much to do with the "development of soccer". It would certainly help with certain sports pundits who revel in soccer bashing, but I don't know if it has that big of an effect on either youth participation numbers or pro and semipro soccer attendance. It's be interesting to see how participation varied with good and bad NT performances. E.g., 1998 was awful while 2002 was very good. Did it make a difference?

[TL65]

Sorry for the double post. When I submitted I recieved an error message saying I had to wait 14 seconds before submitting and another message eit window came up. I resubmitted and this attempt worked wiithout errors, but there are two copies.

[Unregistered]

Posted: Wednesday October 14, 2009 11:04AM; Updated: Wednesday October 14, 2009 12:23PM

Grant Wahl > INSIDE SOCCER


FIFA National-Team Seeding Values
Team Seeding value
Brazil* 59.7
Germany* 59.5
Italy* 56.5
Spain* 56.0
England* 51.3
Argentina 51.0
France 47.2
South Africa* host
----------------------------
Portugal 45.5
Netherlands* 43.0
Mexico* 36.0
United States* 34.3
Paraguay* 34.0
Switzerland 30.7
South Korea* 28.3
Russia 27.3
Ghana* 25.7
Australia* 25.0
Ivory Coast* 23.3
Greece 22.0
Japan* 22.0
Denmark* 21.7
Cameroon 21.3
Uruguay 17.7
Serbia* 17.3
Tunisia 13.0
Chile* 11.7
Honduras 7.2
Slovakia 5.8
Algeria 4.7
New Zealand 1.7
North Korea* 1.3
* Already clinched World Cup berth.




Other news in advance of Wednesday's final U.S. World Cup qualifier (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2, Galavisión):

• The U.S. has essentially zero chance to earn a World Cup seed. As much as the U.S. would like to earn one of the eight coveted top seeds for the World Cup draw on Dec. 4, a close look at the numbers reveals that it's basically impossible. Why is a seed so important? Simple: The eight seeded teams (the top seven teams per FIFA's seeding formula, plus host South Africa) are put into one pot during the draw, which means they won't have to play against any of the other seeded teams in the group stage.

How does FIFA arrive at its seeding values? In the draw for the 2006 World Cup, half of the value came from a team's performance in the previous two World Cups (with the most recent World Cup worth twice as much as the one before that). The other half of the seeding value came from a team's average place in the FIFA rankings at the end of the previous three years.

If we apply that formula to the teams likely to be in this year's World Cup draw, the chart at right illustrates what we get.

As you can see, the U.S. would need to leap four teams to get one of the golden seeds -- and there are only three teams above the U.S. that have yet to clinch World Cup berths.

There still may be some variability in the seed values between now and the draw. FIFA could tweak its formula. Teams might rise and fall a bit in the FIFA rankings. And a few teams expected to reach the World Cup might still choke.

But a seed for the U.S.? Not happening.

• Getting misquoted isn't fun. After the U.S. beat Honduras on Saturday, I began our mixed-zone interview of Donovan by congratulating him on clinching a World Cup berth. His response: "Yeah, we beat the best team in CONCACAF." Huh? Turns out that a Honduran newspaper had run a big article on Saturday in which I was quoted saying Honduras was the best team in CONCACAF. The U.S. players passed it around at lunch and found it to be useful bulletin-board material.

There was only one problem: I never said anything close to it. I did give an interview to a reporter for a Honduran paper in Miami last week, but that ludicrous statement wasn't part of it. If those sorts of things motivate the U.S. team, though, I'd be happy to provide more ammo for Wednesday night's game against Costa Rica:

"Costa Rica is the best team in CONCACAF."*

(* Don't really think so.)

[Unregistered]

I am a huge USMNT supporter, and as much as I would like to say that they have a win to win, in reality I think they have little chance. The biggest reason is their inconsistancy. They could have a run like the Confederation Cup and then a game later not be able to connect three passes. Also with Davies out and Gouch questionable, they leave a US side with two very large holes to fill. I also think that Bradley's coaching has been all over the place. He tends to be conservative and lacks imagination. He plays players long after they have proved to be a hinderance to the team. Throw in the usual USA seeding, well, we will be lucky not to be in another group of death. (Especially since the FIFA officials saw that Gold Cup's disasterious outing against Mexico). Stupid and shortsighted in my opinion. I just hope it is not another 2006.

[Unregistered]

Hypothetical draw

Granted I'm basing this on a lot of assumptions

Pool A:
South Africa
England
Chile
New Zealand

Pool B:
Brazil
Russia
Cameroon
Australia

Pool C:
Germany
Netherlands
Ivory Coast
Japan

Pool D:
Italy
Serbia
Paraguay
Honduras

Pool E:
France
Switzerland
Tunisia
North Korea

Pool F:
Spain
Slovakia
Uruguay
South Korea

Pool G:
Argentina
Greece
Ghana
Mexico

Pool H:
Portugal
Denmark
Algeria
United States

I just threw this out there to see where it might lead.
Obviously the playoffs,final African fixtures,the way FIFA has its pots and the draw could throw a wrench into all this.

Questions?
Comments?

[Unregistered]

2006?

In 2006, did Czech Republic not recieve one of the top seeds? At the time they were the #2 team in the world. Or was it Italy that did not receieve one?

[TL65]

Hypothetical?

There is no point in speculating about what the groups will be at this point. FIFA doesn't publish their procedure so thay can adjust it later, and even if we make some assumptions about the details, such as which teams will be seeded, we know that each group will involve random selection for 3 of 4 teams. (It's also random for teh top seeded team, but it really doesn't matter much if Spain, for example, is in Group A or Group E, if you happen to end up in the same group.)

We will be lucky if we don't end up in a "group of death". That is always true regardless of which WC we are talking about or how well or poorly the NT has been playing.

I don;t know why Mexico is ahead of us in the seeding numbers. We won our federation and we are ranked higher in the FIFA rankings. This happened in teh last WC too.