How many conferences get automatic bids for their champions?
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All 30 conferences send their champions as automatic qualifiers. If the league has a tournament, its the Tourney Champ that gets the bid. If not, like the PAC-12 and Ivy, its the RS winner. The remaining 34 participants are given at-large bids by the NCAA Selection Committee. If you look on the NCAA site, it will share some of the guidelines that the SC uses in granting at-large bids.
This year there is a major change in that the first round will be played at 32 separate sites (not the traditional top 16 spots). It is assumed that the 32 top seeds will all get to host first round games, but that has not been confirmed by the NCAA. It is also unclear how those match-ups will be determined? For example, its unlikely that it will be as simple as 1 vs. 64, 2 vs 63, 3 vs. 62, and so on. Unlikely because that would cause considerable travel and cost to the NCAA.
It also must be remembered that the bracket is still set up in four essentially geographic regions (although there is nothing that stops from sending a team outside its geographic home base. So BC could end up in the west bracket and UCLA in the East. Unlikely, but possible. What is important is that the four regions be comparatively equal in respect to quality. This means that even if the NCAA doesn't use a strict 1 vs 64, 2 vs 63 (and so on) match-up bracket - it will need to get it pretty close. Best guess is that they tinker a little with the first round match-ups to lessen travel, but that the brackets will still have competitive symmetry.
This is accomplished by looking at blocks or ranges of teams as potential opponents. 1-4 will play 61-64, but the particular match-ups will attempt to lessen travel (so it may be 1 vs 63, 2 vs 61, 3 vs 64 and 4 vs 62 - or whatever makes practical sense). This is the best guess, but we really won't know for sure until Sunday night. -
Is it safe to assume that if your RPI is <32 you will be playing at home in the first round?
Is it also safe to assume that if your RPI is > 64 and you are not a conference champion your season is done?Comment
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The answer to the first question is no. The NCAA uses aRPI (adjusted) as the primary factor in its seeding, but they do consider other factors, including head to head results and late season results (patterns). So it isn't possible to determine seeding simply by the aRPI. In addition, the NCAA has not released any formal guidelines about how they are going to "award" home games in the first round, It can be assumed that the top 32 seeds will get home games, but even that is speculative.Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
The answer to the second question is...yes. However, if you have an aRPI of over 46 you will likely not get any real consideration for an at-large bid. The recent history shows that the highest aRPI of an at-large team was 50, but the average has been 46. Every year there has been an example of an at-large team that was selected having a lower aRPI than some team that was left out. Look for Portland, NC State or maybe Miami to be passed over for a team(s) with lower aRPI.Comment
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Looks like UMass will have to win the A-10 in order to get an invitation to the dance.Comment
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The situation with both U Mass and BU represent some interesting components of the selection process. The NCAA selection committee (SC) has a current working model for how the brackets will work. Within that model they have created contingencies for what happens if a team like BU loses in the AE playoffs. BU would probably be out in such a case, replaced by another America East team with a very low ranking, and likely a bottom four seed. Obviously that creates a switch of certain first round games. Similarly, if U Mass does win the A-10, does their automatic qualification knock LaSalle (or Dayton) out of the tourney? Probably not, but I guaranty that the SC has already made a decision about it and is ready to adjust brackets/ first round games accordingly.Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
Its also worth understanding that the dynamics within the SC, can and does impact the selection process. Although the members are expected to be objective, they do have certain biases and those will be reflected in the at-large bids. For example, look at the significant differences between the RPI and NSCAA coaches poll (although the CP is not a formal factor used by the SC, it does reflect "expert" subjective opinions). Under the RPI there are 6 ACC teams in the top 16. Under the CP there are 5, but they are not the same teams. Under the RPI 3 of the top 4 teams are from the ACC, under the CP only one is. BC is 16 in RPI, but falls back to 20 in the CP. BU is a top 20 team in the CP but 36th in RPI! There is a great question about whether the SC will be pro ACC (basing it on RPI and select ten ACC teans for the field), or devalue teams like Miami (RPI of 26) and NC State (39). No one knows... yet.Comment
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There must be some weak conferences in the country. What is typically the lowest aRPI for a conference champion?Originally posted by Unregistered View PostComment
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Look at it this way, right now only twelve conferences have much of a chance to get an at-large bid out of the selection committee. They are the so-call "Big 7" (ACC, Big 10, Big-12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC and WCC) and the Colonial, A-10, Horizon, Big West and Conference USA. For the rest, its win the conference tourney or go home, It is possible for teams from some of the conferences to have a champion in the 200s, but typically the low RPI champions will be in the 110-160 range. Sometimes a league will have a single really good team (Like U Wisc, Milwaukee (21) in the Horizon or BU (36) in America East) but no other teams better than 110. To answer your question directly, the winner of the Southwestern Conference will likely have the lowest RPI as Arkansas- Pine Bluff, favored to win their tourney, is currently at 255. A bitter pill to swallow for a bubble team with an RPI in the top 40, that may stay home!!Originally posted by Unregistered View PostComment
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Is the NCAA webcasting some sort of selection show? Is it live?Comment
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Selection "show" is webcast via the NCAA on Monday night.Originally posted by Unregistered View PostComment
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brackets come out simultaneous with the show on Monday.Originally posted by Unregistered View PostComment
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Cool. What time is the webcast?Comment
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Things really haven't changes much for the local teams. Six New England teams remain in the hunt for NCAA births.
Harvard has already qualified due to their eminent Ivy League Championship. They will likely be a non-seeded team and travel to face a team seeded in the high teens or low 20s.
That opponent may be BC, who is safe for an at-large bid but is probably lucky that the first round has expanded to 32 sites. Otherwise I doubt that BC would have got a chance to host. Their 16 RPI, weak non-league schedule, uneven ACC performance and heavily weighted home schedule (13 of 18 games) likely will keep them out of the top 16 seeds.
BU is a bubble team. It is pretty remote that they will lose to Albany, but if they do (and miss out on the America East automatic birth) they could be the team with the highest RPI (it would be in the low 40s with an AE finals loss) that stays home. A tough pill for a team that was in the top 20 earlier this year.
U Mass flirted with bubble status for the latter part of the year, but their loss to Richmond means that they need to win the A-10 to get an invite. They will have to beat LaSalle (and then probably Dayton) to win the A-10. No short order.
Northeastern remains alive in the Colonial thanks to yesterday's exciting 2OT/ PK win. They are a long shot (William & Mary remains a strong favorite) but the core of seniors on the NU side have won a CL title and understand what it takes.
Sacred Heart starts their quest for a NEC title today at St. Francis. I like their chances and of the 3 NE teams in a must win scenerio, they probably have the best shot as they face the weakest competition. If they do get in, expect the reward to be a visit to Penn State or Virginia!!Comment
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