Girls State Rankings - (2007-08)

Nice job American Heritage Delray#1, American Heritage Plantation #6, and George W Jenkins #9 in the latest Addidas NSCAA girls rankings.

how does this work? the teams ranked higher in FL than these schools arent on the list- even though its mock- downsouth is a lot of times close- so where are those teams?

Nice job American Heritage Delray#1, American Heritage Plantation #6, and George W Jenkins #9 in the latest Addidas NSCAA girls rankings.

how does this work? the teams ranked higher in FL than these schools arent on the list- even though its mock- downsouth is a lot of times close- so where are those teams?

Its based upon votes by the NSCAA members. Downsouth is usually close however their 4A state champions are already out so you never know.

Looks like they bit the big one on 3A district 9 & 10. Seems like they didn't get one game right.....


http://www.downsouthrankings.com/bracke ... irls_4.htm

He got 11 out of 16 perfect !!!! Damn good !!!

He got 11 out of 16 perfect !!!! Damn good !!!

Not sure where you went to school or what you do for a living, but that is only about 69%.

You try picking 11 out of 16 second round winners before the first round even began?????
You are new to this and have no clue what you are talking about. You also think you are smarter than everyone and wish to force your opinion!!!
You will fit in nice here!!

Looks like they bit the big one on 3A district 9 & 10. Seems like they didn't get one game right.....


http://www.downsouthrankings.com/bracke ... irls_4.htm

He rarely gets 3A right, especially if they're not down south. ;) It's not a terrible system except that the points he applied to each team has to do with the quality of their competition. Since that quality is based on his opinion, it's flawed. I will say he makes an effort to know the quality, but no one can know every area that well.

Looks like they bit the big one on 3A district 9 & 10. Seems like they didn't get one game right.....


http://www.downsouthrankings.com/bracke ... irls_4.htm

He rarely gets 3A right, especially if they're not down south. ;) It's not a terrible system except that the points he applied to each team has to do with the quality of their competition. Since that quality is based on his opinion, it's flawed. I will say he makes an effort to know the quality, but no one can know every area that well.

First, thanks to all who step up for me when I'm not around to defend the rankings. I do appreciate it.

I just want everyone to know that I don't have a problem when the critics (and this one appears to have good intentions) come out to question the rating system. It just gives me a chance to set the record straight from my perspective.

My projected brackets for the girls was posted on 1/14/08. That is after the regular season concluded, but before the district tournaments began.

According to the FHSAA.org website, there are 68 girls teams in 3A. My projected brackets picked 16 teams from those 68 to make it to the regional semifinals....(remember, this is before any district games were even played.) My system got 11 of those 16 teams (68.8%) correct. Personally, I would have liked to do a little better, but let's anaylize this and see what happened.

The 5 incorrect picks in 3A girls (final 16):
Florida High (tallahassee) -- has a rating of -45.83. They made it to the final 32 and lost to Pensacola Catholic (-51.25). So the difference was 0.6 goals. Florida High was a slight favorite meaning, based on the ratings, they should win this one about 55-60% of the time. This time Pensacola Catholic pulled through 2-0. This game was not a shocker at all.

Taylor Pierson (daytona area) -- has a rating of -57.86. They made it to the Final 32 and then got destroyed by Trinity Catholic. This team got crushed by a lot of fair teams and they beat up on a ton of poor teams.
Despite the constraints I put in to prevent benefitting from beating weak teams, Pierson earned just enough to put them past Interlachen and Keystone Heights and in the Final 16. Interlachen also benefitted from this. It's not a huge bump up, but it is enough to put them both past Keystone Heights who should have been listed as the likely Final 16 finalist. Keystone beat Taylor pierson in the regular season 4-2 and 3-2 and Keystone beat Interlachen 4-3. This is something I'm going to have to review in the offseason. The rankings are an ongoing process.

St. Pete Catholic -- is #8 in 3A with a ratng of 15.32. Truthfully, I was really concerned with this one before districts started. Some days they showed up (won 3-0 over Lakewood Ranch and beat CCC 3-1) and other days they didn't (lost to Lakewood Ranch 0-5 and lost to CCC 0-3). I noticed a lot of big losses to very good teams. I actually checked their rating to make sure it was accurate. It all checked out.
Still, they are a good team that got beat in the District Semifinals by #15 in 3A Berkeley Prep (3.44). You can see the seperation of these teams is 11.88 points (1.2 goals). So it was suppose to be a pretty close game anyhow. Berekely (9-10-3) actually did beat St. Pete Catholic 1-0 in the regular season, so this can't be considered a shock. These teams just had to deal with ridiculously hard district that includes CCC (7.92). In fact, this is the toughest district in girls 3A because its 3rd rated team (the team that in theory should not make the playoffs) has the highest rating of all 3rd place teams in every district in 3A. Hope that wasn't too confusing.

Bishop Verot (Ft. Myers) -- is #10 in 3A and has a rating of 13.05. Verot is another casualty of #15 Berkeley Prep. Again, this game was suppose to be close as there is about a goal difference between these teams in Verot's favor. Berekely won 3-2. Both teams seem to be very good. Bishop Verot was playing without its coach who was serving a red card suspension. As a side note, Berekely lost the district final to #12 in 3A CCC 2-0.

Pope John Paul II (Boca) -- L 1-6 to West Shore. There is just no explanation for this one. Sometimes the game just gets away from you. I've been there. Pope John Paul has played a lot of top teams and lost by 1 goal to all of them. (#1 in 5A West Boca, #11 in 6A Spanish River, #3 in 3A St. Andrews, then tied St. Andrews). Their biggest loss was 3-1 to #9 in 6A Boca Raton. So I have no idea how this one happened. I will say that West Shore is a good team that also lost a lot of 1 and 2 goal decisions to a difficult schedule.

St. Pete Catholic -- is #8 in 3A with a ratng of 15.32. Truthfully, I was really concerned with this one before districts started. Some days they showed up (won 3-0 over Lakewood Ranch and beat CCC 3-1) and other days they didn't (lost to Lakewood Ranch 0-5 and lost to CCC 0-3). I noticed a lot of big losses to very good teams. I actually checked their rating to make sure it was accurate. It all checked out.
Still, they are a good team that got beat in the District Semifinals by #15 in 3A Berkeley Prep (3.44). You can see the seperation of these teams is 11.88 points (1.2 goals). So it was suppose to be a pretty close game anyhow. Berekely (9-10-3) actually did beat St. Pete Catholic 1-0 in the regular season, so this can't be considered a shock. These teams just had to deal with ridiculously hard district that includes CCC (7.92). In fact, this is the toughest district in girls 3A because its 3rd rated team (the team that in theory should not make the playoffs) has the highest rating of all 3rd place teams in every district in 3A. Hope that wasn't too confusing.

Bishop Verot (Ft. Myers) -- is #10 in 3A and has a rating of 13.05. Verot is another casualty of #15 Berkeley Prep. Again, this game was suppose to be close as there is about a goal difference between these teams in Verot's favor. Berekely won 3-2. Both teams seem to be very good. Bishop Verot was playing without its coach who was serving a red card suspension. As a side note, Berekely lost the district final to #12 in 3A CCC 2-0.

Berkeley Prep beat St Pete Catholic the first time without a few key sttarters on the field. Being a small school the crossover in fall/winter sports takes it's toll, especially this year when public school started later, pushing the fall season back by 2 weeks. I know at least two in volleyball and one in cross country that did not get to play until Thanksgiving due to making it all the way into the state series.

The game against Bishop Verot, it was Berkeley without their coach who was suspended from the St Pete Cath games, not Bishop Verot. He was furious that SPC had gotten seven yellow cards against one player on the Berkeley squad. The game against Bishop Verot would have been much worse, if the assistant coach wouldn't have put 10 subs on the field after the 3rd goal in the first 20 minutes. Bishop Verot scored on the second line of players, not the starters. The starters came back in the second half and maintained their lead.

Other than their district games, Berkeley played almost all 4-6A teams. It helped them to prepare for games when they counted.

My bad regarding the red card, I got the wrong team.

Looks like they bit the big one on 3A district 9 & 10. Seems like they didn't get one game right.....


http://www.downsouthrankings.com/bracke ... irls_4.htm

He rarely gets 3A right, especially if they're not down south. ;) It's not a terrible system except that the points he applied to each team has to do with the quality of their competition. Since that quality is based on his opinion, it's flawed. I will say he makes an effort to know the quality, but no one can know every area that well.

First, thanks to all who step up for me when I'm not around to defend the rankings. I do appreciate it.

I just want everyone to know that I don't have a problem when the critics (and this one appears to have good intentions) come out to question the rating system. It just gives me a chance to set the record straight from my perspective.

My projected brackets for the girls was posted on 1/14/08. That is after the regular season concluded, but before the district tournaments began.

According to the FHSAA.org website, there are 68 girls teams in 3A. My projected brackets picked 16 teams from those 68 to make it to the regional semifinals....(remember, this is before any district games were even played.) My system got 11 of those 16 teams (68.8%) correct. Personally, I would have liked to do a little better, but let's anaylize this and see what happened.

The 5 incorrect picks in 3A girls (final 16):
Florida High (tallahassee) -- has a rating of -45.83. They made it to the final 32 and lost to Pensacola Catholic (-51.25). So the difference was 0.6 goals. Florida High was a slight favorite meaning, based on the ratings, they should win this one about 55-60% of the time. This time Pensacola Catholic pulled through 2-0. This game was not a shocker at all.

Taylor Pierson (daytona area) -- has a rating of -57.86. They made it to the Final 32 and then got destroyed by Trinity Catholic. This team got crushed by a lot of fair teams and they beat up on a ton of poor teams.
Despite the constraints I put in to prevent benefitting from beating weak teams, Pierson earned just enough to put them past Interlachen and Keystone Heights and in the Final 16. Interlachen also benefitted from this. It's not a huge bump up, but it is enough to put them both past Keystone Heights who should have been listed as the likely Final 16 finalist. Keystone beat Taylor pierson in the regular season 4-2 and 3-2 and Keystone beat Interlachen 4-3. This is something I'm going to have to review in the offseason. The rankings are an ongoing process.

St. Pete Catholic -- is #8 in 3A with a ratng of 15.32. Truthfully, I was really concerned with this one before districts started. Some days they showed up (won 3-0 over Lakewood Ranch and beat CCC 3-1) and other days they didn't (lost to Lakewood Ranch 0-5 and lost to CCC 0-3). I noticed a lot of big losses to very good teams. I actually checked their rating to make sure it was accurate. It all checked out.
Still, they are a good team that got beat in the District Semifinals by #15 in 3A Berkeley Prep (3.44). You can see the seperation of these teams is 11.88 points (1.2 goals). So it was suppose to be a pretty close game anyhow. Berekely (9-10-3) actually did beat St. Pete Catholic 1-0 in the regular season, so this can't be considered a shock. These teams just had to deal with ridiculously hard district that includes CCC (7.92). In fact, this is the toughest district in girls 3A because its 3rd rated team (the team that in theory should not make the playoffs) has the highest rating of all 3rd place teams in every district in 3A. Hope that wasn't too confusing.

Bishop Verot (Ft. Myers) -- is #10 in 3A and has a rating of 13.05. Verot is another casualty of #15 Berkeley Prep. Again, this game was suppose to be close as there is about a goal difference between these teams in Verot's favor. Berekely won 3-2. Both teams seem to be very good. Bishop Verot was playing without its coach who was serving a red card suspension. As a side note, Berekely lost the district final to #12 in 3A CCC 2-0.

Pope John Paul II (Boca) -- L 1-6 to West Shore. There is just no explanation for this one. Sometimes the game just gets away from you. I've been there. Pope John Paul has played a lot of top teams and lost by 1 goal to all of them. (#1 in 5A West Boca, #11 in 6A Spanish River, #3 in 3A St. Andrews, then tied St. Andrews). Their biggest loss was 3-1 to #9 in 6A Boca Raton. So I have no idea how this one happened. I will say that West Shore is a good team that also lost a lot of 1 and 2 goal decisions to a difficult schedule.

I'm the poster you're responding to. My kids have played in 3A schools for years. I think what you do is great, but has to be taken with a grain of salt, because aside from your local area and teams you've seen, what you see on paper, and get from word of mouth is not very accurate. Great example is the fact that BP was missing their coach, not BV.

First, when 3A teams are missing players or have injuries, it has a much bigger impact than it does for big schools. The overlap in sports was horrible this year, but those games impacted your rankings, which trickled down through the entire season. Second, all the picks you explained that you got wrong, were either out of your area, or played teams from out of your area. (I have to agree with you on the Florida High- Pensacola Cath result. Looks like a toss-up and I have no clue.) The rest of the results weren't surprising to me, especially the Westshore-Pope John Paul, BP-Bishop Verot, and CCC district champ. In our neck of the woods, different results in those would have been considered big upsets. It seems to be like this every year with the good teams from down south getting much more respect and press. I remember one year, when CCC traveled to St Andrews for a regional final and won big, I think 4-0, but everyone on talking soccer was assuming they would be blown away. Up here it wasn't as surprising. We knew how tough they were, because we actually play them.

I don't want you to think I'm trashing your efforts. They are really very useful. and I can't come up with a better system, with the exception of cloning and spreading yourself around the state. ;) It's great to take your info, and adjust it with what we know better. You rank every class statewide, so you can't possibly know the teams, in every class and area, as intimately as those that are in the thick of it. For example, I may have done better with the results of 3A, especially the teams I know, but there is no way I'd be able to come as close as you in all the classes, statewide. And, lets not forget, this is soccer. Any given day we can have a surprise.
BTW, how were your results in the other classes? I selfcenteredly, haven't bothered to keep track.

With cross country, golf, volleyball, swimming, football all interfering with the beginning of the soccer season, have you considered modifying your rankings until after states is over for those sports? Games during big club tournaments too? I know it had a big impact on my kid's team, but then again, we had a lot of players out of town for holiday tournaments too. We seem to know what we're made of after the holidays. We always end up doing well in regionals, but you wouldn't always believe that early in the season. I think a lot of teams are like that. Do the games in the second half carry more weight than the early ones?

Big night tonight!

With cross country, golf, volleyball, swimming, football all interfering with the beginning of the soccer season, have you considered modifying your rankings until after states is over for those sports? Games during big club tournaments too? I know it had a big impact on my kid's team, but then again, we had a lot of players out of town for holiday tournaments too. We seem to know what we're made of after the holidays. We always end up doing well in regionals, but you wouldn't always believe that early in the season. I think a lot of teams are like that. Do the games in the second half carry more weight than the early ones?

The solution really is to put more weight on games played during the 2nd half of the season. I'll try to figure something out for next year.

Ranking is for entire season!! If you have kids not dedicated to sport and it costs you that is your problem!! If you have injuries, vacations over holiday tournaments that is your problem!! Quit crying, get your kids ready and play your best!!!!
The conditions are same at every school, overlap of sports same at every school!! Just deal with it!!!!!!
The end of season is already weighted!! If you win State Championship, which happens to be played at the end, then you will be remembered at Champions..........everyone else will be forgotten till next year!!!