For the fourth and final time – before switching to the men’s “Swiss model” next season – the Champions League group stage will kick off this Tuesday, but for all the ‘growth’ we’ve seen over the last few years, is the competition actually offering something different? The set-up The current format splits the Champions League into three distinct phases starting with the two qualifying rounds. Usually played over August and September, champions of lower ranked associations are paired with other champions as second and third-placed teams from the top ranked leagues clash with each other. It’s the qualifying rounds where we’ve been seeing some of the upsets, notably last season when Paris FC (as the third-place finisher from the French Première Ligue) knocked Arsenal out of the first round of qualifying before besting VfL Wolfsburg (the runners-up from the previous UWCL season) over the two legs in the second round. As well as surprises, the qualifying rounds see 55 (or so) teams knocked out before the competition “proper” even starts. The group stage which is governed by stauncher rules and a broadcast deal, gets underway with the 12 teams who made it through the qualifying rounds as well as the top four teams (this season: Barcelona, Lyon, Chelsea and Bayern Munich) who are given a bye. Divvied up by seeding, the 16 teams are drawn into four groups of four and contest the second phase over six matchdays played over the latter months of the year. Again, we have seen surprises at this stage as well as enjoying the year-on-year growth from the teams who routinely make it to the last 16. As well as BK Häcken’s somewhat unexpected second-place finish in the group (with Chelsea, Real Madrid and Paris FC) last season, we’ve seen the rise of Roma and Benfica in Europe, with their regular participation key for their own development in the competition. (A/N: although this season Benfica failed to make it beyond the second round of qualifying, losing out at home to Swedish champions Hammarby.) From the group stage, where the top two from each group go through, the Champions League enters its third and final phase into a straight knock-out competition, with ties played over two legs (home and away), culminating in the final at a neutral venue. Unbalanced scales For all the thrills and spills of the qualifying rounds and group stage – such as Real Madrid failing to make it to the knock-out rounds the last two years – there is the persistent predictable twinge about the competition as a whole. TSG Hoffenheim’s 4-1 win over in 2021 made for a dramatic end to the group stage but ultimately had little impact as the Gunners still went through ahead of the Germans. And what of the 2023-24 “group of death” of Ajax, Paris Saint-Germain, Roma and Bayern Munich that went all the way to the wire, with all four teams still able to reach the knock-outs when the last two matches kicked-off in January? Ajax were swiftly booted from the competition by Chelsea in the quarters and although PSG survived their quarter (against Häcken), a meeting with familiar foes Lyon in the semi-finals put an end to their quest for a third appearance in the final. The path to the final, wherever it’s held that season, is a long one that starts before the summer is even over but of the last nine finals, there have only been two winners: Barcelona and Lyon. Worst still, of those 18 final berths only five teams have reached the last two: Barcelona (5), Lyon (7), Wolfsburg (4), Chelsea (1) and PSG (1). We are well used to a duopoly in the UWCL, and in the early days of the competition – when it was still known as the UEFA Women’s Cup – it was FFC Frankfurt and Umeå who were the regulars. Indeed, before Lyon became the unofficial queens of Europe, it was Frankfurt (then an independent club, but now under the banner of Eintracht) who were the dominant team with four titles to their name but as Frankfurt and Turbine Potsdam (another of Germany’s independent forbearers) fell away, Lyon and Wolfsburg rose. Even though they met in four finals, Wolfsburg rarely had the beating of Lyon and until Barcelona surged on, no team did. So, now we’ve gone from all but knowing – even before a ball has even been kicked in qualifying – Lyon will be champions, to assuming it will be one of Lyon or Barcelona, with a strong probability of a meeting of the two in the final. But does that make the Champions League as a whole, less entertaining? A women’s football problem At the 2019 World Cup, it was accepted that the USA were bound for the title which they of course claimed in fine fashion against the Netherlands. But did that expected champion and final outcome invalidate Italy’s triumphant return to the world stage? What of Argentina’s resilience in the group stage or Nigeria’s first foray out of the group since the 90s, were those undermined by a familiar name on the trophy? Did predictability shave the sheen off of the 2019 World Cup, and if so, and does it do the same with the Champions League? Of the 70-odd teams that compete in the UWCL, very few teams actually have a real chance of making it all the way down to the last two. The reason Lyon have been at the forefront for so very long is thanks to the investment at the club, of treating the women’s team as a valued part of Olympique Lyonnais and giving the players the same facilities and care as the men’s section. That treatment kept Lyon ahead of the curve in terms of who they could recruit too, the French club an attractive prospect for some of the best in the sport. The landscape has changed since Lyon won the first of their eight [and counting] European crowns, but still the French titans remain at the head of the pack, even if Barcelona are running in tandem. But the likelihood of a team outside of that small band of teams who’ve already made it to a final in recent years, upsetting the odds? So, is the Champions League still delivering? Is it a competition that can stand on some kind of relative equal footing to the men’s tournament – that for all its predictability and the chronic winningness of Real Madrid, has at least thrown up some different finals in recent years. Even if the men’s tournament hasn’t seen new winners; Borussia Dortmund, Inter Milan and even Spurs have reached the biggest stage in European club football in recent years, highlighting that bit more competition and quality across the continent as a whole. The ugly truth is that in that very top band, world class teams are still thin on the ground in women’s football and that won’t change overnight. But it’s down to the individual fan to look at what they value. It could just be about watching the best two teams on the continent going at it for 90 minutes in a final – and the last few finals have delivered in terms of entertainment. Or maybe it’s about the ups and downs of the teams who are taking strides to compete in the group stage, about watching that upward growth of relative newcomers, or even just the drama of those early qualifiers and honest delight that comes from relative upsets. But if you want something unpredictable to happen down the home straight, and another first-time finalist or new name on the trophy? Well, maybe the Champions League isn’t for you, not yet.
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