CIAC will pause all fall sports activities until Aug 24

[Unregistered]

wishful thinking here...unless you can post the polls??? :

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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...-2020-vs-2016/

[Unregistered]

doesnt really matter the size of the venue

Trump is doing 5K+ joe is getting 10 cars

it tells you a little

So I saw video of thousands and thousands show up for Trump motorcade in CA this weekend. It was impressive.
I also saw video of thousands of cars on Long Island for Trump parade.
It is not possible to not believe my eyes. 1984?

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."

"And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed—if all records told the same tale—then the lie passed into history and became truth."

George Orwell, 1984

[Unregistered]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...-2020-vs-2016/

Seriously? Did you actually look at the underlying data they are using? Basically -- they are saying -- Take all the locked Biden states, Plus all the "Leaning Biden" states, plus all of the "Undecideds" and you have where Biden is currently. Basically they have Biden winning everything, including Florida, Texas, and Arizona. It is not quite Nixon/Mondale level, but getting darn close to 500 electoral votes for Biden. And, Real Clear Politics is a Republican leaning group -- which explains keeping the huge number of "undecided" states that long ago "decided" for Biden.

[Unregistered]

Seriously? Did you actually look at the underlying data they are using? Basically -- they are saying -- Take all the locked Biden states, Plus all the "Leaning Biden" states, plus all of the "Undecideds" and you have where Biden is currently. Basically they have Biden winning everything, including Florida, Texas, and Arizona. It is not quite Nixon/Mondale level, but getting darn close to 500 electoral votes for Biden. And, Real Clear Politics is a Republican leaning group -- which explains keeping the huge number of "undecided" states that long ago "decided" for Biden.

Not quite Snowflake. First, RCP is an aggregation site of information they don't produce political opinions, they just share opinions from both sides. They post an equal number of articles and videos with bias's from both parties. They currently have 197 electoral votes up for grabs. The underlying data is a poll of polls.

What you don't seem able to grasp is that in 2016 Hilary was leading in all these battleground state polls as well, including FL, MI, WI, PA, AZ, NC and even in OH, and IA. RCP tracks the progress of polling in these battlegrounds versus 2016 and Trump is ahead compared to 2016. Meaning Trump is doing pretty well where it counts.

[Unregistered]

Anybody notice Amy Coney Barret's family is bigger than a Biden rally?

[Unregistered]

How can Trump possibly close a 10pt gap in two weeks? He probably can't.

President Trump is running out of time. Joe Biden leads by double digits in national polls, and state-level polling is only slightly closer. In fact, Biden’s lead is so large that traditionally red states like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas might now go blue. We’ve entered the last two-week stretch before Election Day, and Trump needs the race to tighten — we’re way past the point where a normal polling error could let Trump close the gap. Still, Trump has a meaningful chance per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

[Unregistered]

How can Trump possibly close a 10pt gap in two weeks? He probably can't.

President Trump is running out of time. Joe Biden leads by double digits in national polls, and state-level polling is only slightly closer. In fact, Biden’s lead is so large that traditionally red states like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas might now go blue. We’ve entered the last two-week stretch before Election Day, and Trump needs the race to tighten — we’re way past the point where a normal polling error could let Trump close the gap. Still, Trump has a meaningful chance per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Thanks for quoting 538. 538 had Hilary with a 71% of winning the election the day before the election. As the hours passed on election day 2016 538 increased the probability of Hilary winning the election increased to 95% as early exit poll result came in. Huffington post had the probability at 98.4%! Haha.

2016 Meltdown entertainment: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x690oyj

[Unregistered]

How can Trump possibly close a 10pt gap in two weeks? He probably can't.

President Trump is running out of time. Joe Biden leads by double digits in national polls, and state-level polling is only slightly closer. In fact, Biden’s lead is so large that traditionally red states like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas might now go blue. We’ve entered the last two-week stretch before Election Day, and Trump needs the race to tighten — we’re way past the point where a normal polling error could let Trump close the gap. Still, Trump has a meaningful chance per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

538 had Hilary with a 87.3% chance of winning on October 19th, 2016:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

[Unregistered]

What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...em-about-2020/

Comey memo dropped Oct 28th. Also, HRC dipped into negative and statistically tied territory with Trump a few times, while Biden's lead has been consistently ahead of Trump for months.

Voter turnout already looks to be the highest in over 100 years. 2018 also was the largest turnout for a midterm in 100 years. Primary voting broke all recent records this year, despite a pandemic. Now, which side will benefit the most? Remains to be seen. Usually it benefits the Democrats. Regardless, more voters than ever are engaged and that is a good thing.

[Unregistered]

What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...em-about-2020/

Comey memo dropped Oct 28th. Also, HRC dipped into negative and statistically tied territory with Trump a few times, while Biden's lead has been consistently ahead of Trump for months.

Voter turnout already looks to be the highest in over 100 years. 2018 also was the largest turnout for a midterm in 100 years. Primary voting broke all recent records this year, despite a pandemic. Now, which side will benefit the most? Remains to be seen. Usually it benefits the Democrats. Regardless, more voters than ever are engaged and that is a good thing.

That article is not very informative. They are weighing education more? Not very meaningful. What they need to understand better is how the electorate has changed and they don't have a good handle on that. Democrats usually have a significant edge on voter registrations. That has narrowed significantly in this election.

The midterm electorate is different than the presidential electorate. Trump had the Russia hoax headwind in the midterms, Biden will now have his son's headwind in the last two weeks.

[Unregistered]

How can Trump possibly close a 10pt gap in two weeks? He probably can't.

President Trump is running out of time. Joe Biden leads by double digits in national polls, and state-level polling is only slightly closer. In fact, Biden’s lead is so large that traditionally red states like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas might now go blue. We’ve entered the last two-week stretch before Election Day, and Trump needs the race to tighten — we’re way past the point where a normal polling error could let Trump close the gap. Still, Trump has a meaningful chance per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Not even close to 10 points
Why is biden running ads in CT?
Makes no sense. CT has not voted red since 1988.
Makes me think biden is worrying he can’t even win CT a 1 party state.
Looks like a landslide for Trump

[Unregistered]

And, don’t forget the race is still on: can Trump kill 250,000 by Election Day? 5490 in the last 7 days and a big surge on right now across the country. With his new anti-Fauci approach he is doing his best to get there. 222,000 dead now - 5482 in the last 7 days. He certainly will get to exceed (in just 9 months) the total American dead from WWII (242,000). But, 250,000 is a goal Trump obviously wants to get too.

[Unregistered]

And, don’t forget the race is still on: can Trump kill 250,000 by Election Day? 5490 in the last 7 days and a big surge on right now across the country. With his new anti-Fauci approach he is doing his best to get there. 222,000 dead now - 5482 in the last 7 days. He certainly will get to exceed (in just 9 months) the total American dead from WWII (242,000). But, 250,000 is a goal Trump obviously wants to get too.

Supposedly, democrats don’t die of covid because they all wear masks. So advantage Biden

[Unregistered]

What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...em-about-2020/

Comey memo dropped Oct 28th. Also, HRC dipped into negative and statistically tied territory with Trump a few times, while Biden's lead has been consistently ahead of Trump for months.

Voter turnout already looks to be the highest in over 100 years. 2018 also was the largest turnout for a midterm in 100 years. Primary voting broke all recent records this year, despite a pandemic. Now, which side will benefit the most? Remains to be seen. Usually it benefits the Democrats. Regardless, more voters than ever are engaged and that is a good thing.

more voters with less information is never a good thing
you are seeing blatant info suppression/ censorship from the media- an uneducated electorate is incredibly dangerous- thats how all the really bad stuff happens

[Unregistered]

Hey Moderator

I think it’s safe to say that you should move this thread to the Talking politics section immediately.