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Club Commitment List Accuracy Analysis

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    Club Commitment List Accuracy Analysis

    Creating a new thread so this information will be easy to find in the fall of 2018 and beyond.

    This thread will track an OBJECTIVE analysis of how accurate girls clubs in CT are about their commitment lists each year. We are not tracking subjective measures like best fit (soccer or academic) or getting into volume arguments about the size of the club’s pool of players and its impact on the quality of schools that a club can attract. We are not interested in how much scholarship money a club gets its graduating class as it is impossible to track and relies on hearsay. In addition, we are not interested in how much playing time/appearances a player makes as that can be affected by any number of factors.

    This is intended as a buyer’s guide that looks at the primary marketing vehicle for clubs (“We can get your child into college”) and how truthful the clubs are about that claim each year. The analysis is simple, we take the club-published list of commits and in the fall of that year we compare it to the rosters of the colleges that the girls committed to.

    We make no judgment on the REASON for the inaccuracies and, in fact, acknowledge that 18-year-old kids will change their minds about playing soccer in college (or even attending that college at all) for any number of valid/normal reasons that fall outside of the club’s purview to affect them. However, the rate of those “change-of-mind” occurrences should be relatively equal amongst all CT clubs. Large variations in accuracy can only be attributed to a willful decision by the club to mislead future/current customers about how effective they are at their primary promise, to get your child into college via soccer.

    In addition, we track the quality of the destination colleges’ soccer programs by objectively looking at what percentage of those teams made the NCAA postseason in the proceeding fall season. If an otherwise stellar college program fails to make the playoffs that year, no credit is given as it should equal out in the long run across the clubs. We admit this analysis is of far less importance than the accuracy analysis as playing for a terrible soccer program in a great academic school is far better than the converse of that.

    #2
    Final 2017 Accuracy %

    Final 2017 Accuracy % -

    YU - 56%
    FSA - 75%
    OW - 87%
    CFC - 97%

    2017 Single Season College Soccer Quality Analysis

    As determined by % of schools on commit list that made the NCAA postseason (in D1, D2, or D3) for Fall 2017. To remain objective we are looking only at whether that college was considered in the top 64 schools (top 48 for D2) for that single season.

    YU – 0 of 16 = 0%
    OW – 2 of 14 = 14%
    FSA – 2 of 13 = 15%
    CFC – 8 of 28 = 29%

    Comment


      #3
      2017 Backup Data –

      YU 8 of 18 not on a roster = 44% false
      FS 4/16 = 25% false
      OW 2/15 = 13% false
      CFC 1/32 = 3% false

      Here’s the 2017 ECNL commit list…

      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...uO1GI/htmlview

      Here’s the Oakwood Commitment List, which includes every class year mixed together…
      https://www.oakwoodsoccer.com/college-commitments

      …and here’s the OW official roster used to cross reference to ascertain which were 2017 grads…
      http://home.gotsoccer.com/rankings/t...y=yes&compact=

      Here’s the 2017 Yankee list…
      http://yankeeunited.com/Page.asp?n=1...NKEEUNITED.COM

      Comment


        #4
        For this year, here’s the link to the 2018 ECNL Commitments….

        https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...uV0/edit#gid=0

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
          For this year, here’s the link to the 2018 ECNL Commitments….

          https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...uV0/edit#gid=0
          What about NPL commits?

          Comment


            #6
            Special Counsel is in the house! Mueller can juggle TrumpRussiaGate and Club Commitments Lists and STILL have time to take down Manafort and Co.!

            Suck it, Nunes! : -)

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
              What about NPL commits?
              The NPL is a much larger and less centralized/organized league. They don’t have a unified list of commits that I’ve ever found which means unlike the ECNL, you have to rely on each club to post their own. Yankee does, Oakwood sort of does.

              Find it and we will track it.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                Special Counsel is in the house! Mueller can juggle TrumpRussiaGate and Club Commitments Lists and STILL have time to take down Manafort and Co.!

                Suck it, Nunes! : -)
                I see the hypocritical left is at it again....

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                  I see the hypocritical left is at it again....
                  I see you're still a Fuktard.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Clearly this as created by CFC supporter. My guess it’s slow at the hedge fund and Dad gave an intern fun little project to win brownie points and gametime for Daddy’s little ECNL princess.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                      Creating a new thread so this information will be easy to find in the fall of 2018 and beyond.

                      This thread will track an OBJECTIVE analysis of how accurate girls clubs in CT are about their commitment lists each year. We are not tracking subjective measures like best fit (soccer or academic) or getting into volume arguments about the size of the club’s pool of players and its impact on the quality of schools that a club can attract. We are not interested in how much scholarship money a club gets its graduating class as it is impossible to track and relies on hearsay. In addition, we are not interested in how much playing time/appearances a player makes as that can be affected by any number of factors.

                      This is intended as a buyer’s guide that looks at the primary marketing vehicle for clubs (“We can get your child into college”) and how truthful the clubs are about that claim each year. The analysis is simple, we take the club-published list of commits and in the fall of that year we compare it to the rosters of the colleges that the girls committed to.

                      We make no judgment on the REASON for the inaccuracies and, in fact, acknowledge that 18-year-old kids will change their minds about playing soccer in college (or even attending that college at all) for any number of valid/normal reasons that fall outside of the club’s purview to affect them. However, the rate of those “change-of-mind” occurrences should be relatively equal amongst all CT clubs. Large variations in accuracy can only be attributed to a willful decision by the club to mislead future/current customers about how effective they are at their primary promise, to get your child into college via soccer.

                      In addition, we track the quality of the destination colleges’ soccer programs by objectively looking at what percentage of those teams made the NCAA postseason in the proceeding fall season. If an otherwise stellar college program fails to make the playoffs that year, no credit is given as it should equal out in the long run across the clubs. We admit this analysis is of far less importance than the accuracy analysis as playing for a terrible soccer program in a great academic school is far better than the converse of that.


                      This is a fine idea, but the issue that I have is that the other unknown is whether the club provides any assistance with the recruiting process. FSA has not given us any support or assistance. They are all talk. My daughter will play in college but 100% of the interest generated so far is based on her effort - emailing coaches, going to camps/clinics, sending video. FSA doesn't do anything.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                        Clearly this as created by CFC supporter. My guess it’s slow at the hedge fund and Dad gave an intern fun little project to win brownie points and gametime for Daddy’s little ECNL princess.
                        Thanks Walmart Dad. That's a pretty good guess.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          I guess Michael Lewis ran out of cool stuff to write about...

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Doesn't this all fail to consider the number of players in the club or in an age group within the club that do not commit to any college program at all?

                            Wouldn't it be better to know that Club A places 80% of its kids as opposed to another club that might place more or less in terms of percentages?

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                              Doesn't this all fail to consider the number of players in the club or in an age group within the club that do not commit to any college program at all?

                              Wouldn't it be better to know that Club A places 80% of its kids as opposed to another club that might place more or less in terms of percentages?
                              I'm not sure its relevant. FSA has State teams and CFC has branch teams like Sound. Both field teams at 17 and 18. Typically decent role players on their HS teams that love the game and love to compete outside the HS season. For most of those players college soccer isn't even a goal. Every year a few will move on D3 teams but they are typically engaging in the recruiting process like their peers on the top teams. ECNL kids live and breathe college recruiting for Sophomore and Junior year. It's a painful process that most have no interest in.

                              So saying the club has 50% of kids go onto college soccer would be misleading because typically ECNL teams have 100% take up on their rosters

                              Comment

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