Talent ID Study

[Unregistered]

“Early success is a poor predictor for later super-elite success, and thus for early talent identification purposes. Super-elite success is mostly preceded by relatively late entry into organized support programmes.”

https://skillacquisition.wordpress.c...e-worlds-best/

[Unregistered]

“Early success is a poor predictor for later super-elite success, and thus for early talent identification purposes. Super-elite success is mostly preceded by relatively late entry into organized support programmes.”

https://skillacquisition.wordpress.c...e-worlds-best/

Lots of interesting conclusions listed here.

[Unregistered]

“Early success is a poor predictor for later super-elite success, and thus for early talent identification purposes. Super-elite success is mostly preceded by relatively late entry into organized support programmes.”

https://skillacquisition.wordpress.c...e-worlds-best/

I am not sure that late entry into soccer is a recipe for super elite success. In many cases of Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, Suarez, Griezmann, Bale, Lewandowski, et al all started very, very young

Perhaps the initial statement of early success is a poor indicator for later success due to emphasis picking large fast athlete.

[Unregistered]

I am not sure that late entry into soccer is a recipe for super elite success. In many cases of Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, Suarez, Griezmann, Bale, Lewandowski, et al all started very, very young

Perhaps the initial statement of early success is a poor indicator for later success due to emphasis picking large fast athlete.

there is nothing wrong with picking the large fast athlete. what is wrong is that in the USA , that skill, with limited technical refinement is often enough to dominate the competition for a meaningful amount of time.

The signals sent to these kids are very confusing - all this and that , HS success etc. Coaches use them to get early wins and then move on. It takes a special driven kid and/or wise parents to ignore that and work on the other aspects of the game to produce a truly special player.

[Unregistered]

I am not sure that late entry into soccer is a recipe for super elite success. In many cases of Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, Suarez, Griezmann, Bale, Lewandowski, et al all started very, very young

Perhaps the initial statement of early success is a poor indicator for later success due to emphasis picking large fast athlete.

It doesn't say late entry into soccer. It says "relatively late entry into organized support programmes". I think in the cases of Messi, Ronaldo, Suarez you would see that they played tons of soccer early - it just wasn't the type of regimented organized madness in the US. Street soccer, pick up, etc. One of the other studies described in the post picks up on this point - more time spent in unorganized activities was a predictor for success.

[Unregistered]

It doesn't say late entry into soccer. It says "relatively late entry into organized support programmes". I think in the cases of Messi, Ronaldo, Suarez you would see that they played tons of soccer early - it just wasn't the type of regimented organized madness in the US. Street soccer, pick up, etc. One of the other studies described in the post picks up on this point - more time spent in unorganized activities was a predictor for success.

Urban Legends. They all joined clubs real early and turned pro early.

Messi joined his local club st age 4. Joined Newells Old Boys at 6 and Barca at 14

Ronaldo started at his local club 7 ... Nacional at 10. Sporting Lisbon at 12 ... Man U at 18

Suarez started at his local club when less than 7. He started at Nacional at 14. He made his pro debut at 18

Neymar started his youth career at 7 .. moved to Santos at 11. Made his pro debut with Santos at 17. By 21 he was playing at Barca

[Unregistered]

Urban Legends. They all joined clubs real early and turned pro early.

Messi joined his local club st age 4. Joined Newells Old Boys at 6 and Barca at 14

Ronaldo started at his local club 7 ... Nacional at 10. Sporting Lisbon at 12 ... Man U at 18

Suarez started at his local club when less than 7. He started at Nacional at 14. He made his pro debut at 18

Neymar started his youth career at 7 .. moved to Santos at 11. Made his pro debut with Santos at 17. By 21 he was playing at Barca

And they are the Mount Rushmore athlete types.

Very extreme exceptions to a normative group.

[Unregistered]

And they are the Mount Rushmore athlete types.

Very extreme exceptions to a normative group.

Well first the poster claimed those specific players were only playing in the streets at a young age and not part of formal training. That was debunked.

Now you are saying they are the exception. Which is it?

Here is a top 100 best soccer player list. Show me five players who Didn't have formal club training at an early age

https://www.theguardian.com/football...16-interactive

The problem is that most if not all will have formal training at a young age. Formal training at clubs at very early ages are the NORM for soccer players.

[Unregistered]

Well first the poster claimed those specific players were only playing in the streets at a young age and not part of formal training. That was debunked.

Now you are saying they are the exception. Which is it?

Here is a top 100 best soccer player list. Show me five players who Didn't have formal club training at an early age

https://www.theguardian.com/football...16-interactive

The problem is that most if not all will have formal training at a young age. Formal training at clubs at very early ages are the NORM for soccer players.

Did you even read the full piece? You seem to have missed the main point.

[Unregistered]

Did you even read the full piece? You seem to have missed the main point.

I read the whole piece I was reacting to the one claim that late entry into organized sport is a predictor of elite status ... that clearly doesn't apply to elite soccer players

[Unregistered]

I read the whole piece I was reacting to the one claim that late entry into organized sport is a predictor of elite status ... that clearly doesn't apply to elite soccer players

My bad, I thought the link was to a pretty well known dutch study showing that early talent identification was --GENERALLY -- pretty worthless, in that those players IDed early on rarely lasted into the late teens/early 20's as "elite". I don't have time now to find that study, but in searching for it, came across this German one. Their conclusion is similar:

* * *
Selection, de-selection and progression in German football
talent promotion

The observations suggest that the
collective of professional players emerged from repeated procedures of selection and de-selection through childhood and
youth rather than from early selection and long-term continuous nurture in TID/TP programmes.
https://www.finhockey.fi/@Bin/11793941/FUTISSAKSA.pdf


* * * *

Yes, Messi was ID'ed early, and stayed at the top of the heap for his entire life, but that's why he's a legend -- no one else is like him, even among european professionals. Leaving the Messi's of the world out of it, for the rest of the elite soccer players, early talent identification is massively flawed, and those kids picked out at age 6 or 10 rarely pan out.

So, the kids who are playing soccer elsewhere (not NOT playing soccer, no one claims that) are developing outside of the elite talent ID system, and only come into it later.

Perhaps Vardy is a good example of this (though also extreme).

[Unregistered]

My bad, I thought the link was to a pretty well known dutch study showing that early talent identification was --GENERALLY -- pretty worthless, in that those players IDed early on rarely lasted into the late teens/early 20's as "elite". I don't have time now to find that study, but in searching for it, came across this German one. Their conclusion is similar:

* * *
Selection, de-selection and progression in German football
talent promotion

The observations suggest that the
collective of professional players emerged from repeated procedures of selection and de-selection through childhood and
youth rather than from early selection and long-term continuous nurture in TID/TP programmes.
https://www.finhockey.fi/@Bin/11793941/FUTISSAKSA.pdf


* * * *

Yes, Messi was ID'ed early, and stayed at the top of the heap for his entire life, but that's why he's a legend -- no one else is like him, even among european professionals. Leaving the Messi's of the world out of it, for the rest of the elite soccer players, early talent identification is massively flawed, and those kids picked out at age 6 or 10 rarely pan out.

So, the kids who are playing soccer elsewhere (not NOT playing soccer, no one claims that) are developing outside of the elite talent ID system, and only come into it later.

Perhaps Vardy is a good example of this (though also extreme).

I am not saying the selection process isn't flawed. However the urban legend of kids being playing in the streets with a faux ball is bunk. One poster even suggested that was the path that Messi took. Exclusively soccer players are playing for clubs early in their youth careers.

[Unregistered]

Soccer is unique in that aspect - the sooner you're trained well and playing the better. Some other sports don't' require the same level of sequential skill building over the years.

[Unregistered]

Soccer is unique in that aspect - the sooner you're trained well and playing the better. Some other sports don't' require the same level of sequential skill building over the years.

Bingo ...

[Unregistered]

Soccer is unique in that aspect - the sooner you're trained well and playing the better. Some other sports don't' require the same level of sequential skill building over the years.

Of course they do. It is the exact same for all sports at high professional levels. Mastering the specific skills of each sport for greats mostly probably starts early for them and then they pursue it and push it to get better. They have skills, genetics, great attitude, some luck, and drive. I love the story of one pro basketball player that was asked what his greatest motivation was. Winning? Money? fame? His answer was losing. Impossible to get there, harder still to be a star, worse to have staying power, and being an HOFer or all time great is even worse still. Each of the truly special all time greats like brady, montana, rice, payton, jordan, magic, bird, gretzky, jagr, lemiuex, palmer, nicklaus, ruth, mantle, koufax, federer, the Williams sisters, hamm, wambach, marta, pele, maradona, CR, messi .. All something special and probably each has a unique story that defines their greatness. And for every one of them there are 1,000,000 other players that doesnct get to their level .....many of whom also started early and were well trained. If anyone could define a single reason those stars were who they are them it would be easy to duplicate then all of our kids would be on the bubble for the NT and more.