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The coronavirus might bring the small clubs back to the forefront

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    #16
    Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
    Not even close. In October of 2008, a month or so after the Lehman Collapse, the unemployment rate was close to 7%. We're about a month into the Covid-19 Pandemic and the unemployment rate for March was 4.4%. That's not to say that the number won't grow, after the 2008 financial collapse, the unemployment # didn't peak until a year later (October 2009) at around 10%. Don't think it will hit the same #'s as 2009, as the summer months roll in, many that are out of work because of social distancing measures will return to those jobs barring any gross missteps of the pending stimulus programs.
    We are over 10% now after only three weeks. And it's going to get much worse over the next few weeks.

    Comment


      #17
      Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
      With so many parents being out of work, the smaller clubs that have no mandatory trainer fees at the club level like Manorville and Ronkonkoma might see a surge of players and entire teams looking to join them in the fall. A little over $100 a season for registration and under $100 uniform kits is going to look real attractive to a lot of people.
      The economic impact will kill small clubs not help them. The big clubs can weather the storm, much like large companies but small clubs will fold just like small business.

      Comment


        #18
        Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
        The economic impact will kill small clubs not help them. The big clubs can weather the storm, much like large companies but small clubs will fold just like small business.
        I dont agree here. You are dealing with two separate missions. The mission of town clubs, generally speaking, is exercise with a little competence thrown in (very little, truth be told). The town teams are non-profits, so their expenses are minimal and expectations of its customers is minimal. OTOH, the "big clubs" which I assume you mean the academies, are FOR PROFIT. They will sink or swim depending on how well capitalized they were going into this disaster. Every single one of them will see a decline in participation. There also wont be scholarships for the great players who the rest of the parents pay for....

        Ask yourself this: you are a customer, are you more upset with the thousands of $$ you spent on a product and received nothing or the 100 you spent for whcih you received nothing....

        Comment


          #19
          Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
          I dont agree here. You are dealing with two separate missions. The mission of town clubs, generally speaking, is exercise with a little competence thrown in (very little, truth be told). The town teams are non-profits, so their expenses are minimal and expectations of its customers is minimal. OTOH, the "big clubs" which I assume you mean the academies, are FOR PROFIT. They will sink or swim depending on how well capitalized they were going into this disaster. Every single one of them will see a decline in participation. There also wont be scholarships for the great players who the rest of the parents pay for....

          Ask yourself this: you are a customer, are you more upset with the thousands of $$ you spent on a product and received nothing or the 100 you spent for whcih you received nothing....
          As unemployment goes up discretionary income for extracurricular activities will dry up. If I lose my job even town soccer becomes a luxury. Hell, who is even going to coach? How many people will be able to afford the luxury of donating their time?

          As for the money I spent on the current season and have lost is the same as everyone else. But what town club is currently functioning now? Everyone lost a season, but in another month we will be seeing large numbers of people losing their jobs at a greater rate than we are currently.

          Organized sports will become a luxury that most people will no longer be able to afford.

          Comment


            #20
            Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
            The economic impact will kill small clubs not help them. The big clubs can weather the storm, much like large companies but small clubs will fold just like small business.
            My small club has literally less than $1,000 overhead per season. Why in the world do you think this will collapse us?

            Comment


              #21
              Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
              My small club has literally less than $1,000 overhead per season. Why in the world do you think this will collapse us?
              Because there will be fewer players left to even play. Clubs are going to go bankrupt with a contracting player pool. The most vulnerable clubs are the small clubs, not really any different than small business.

              Comment


                #22
                Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                Because there will be fewer players left to even play. Clubs are going to go bankrupt with a contracting player pool. The most vulnerable clubs are the small clubs, not really any different than small business.
                It's virtually impossible to bankrupt my small club. We only collect the money needed to pay for passes, refs and the league fees. We only collect a little bit over that for field paint, nets, etc. We have no paid board members. We have no paid coaches. We don't pay for fields. We can scale up or down seamlessly so losing even half our teams doesn't hurt us financially much at all.

                The only way we fold is not enough players to form teams, and with everyone being broke I'm betting that we actually gain more players than we lose as the people without jobs that still want their kids to play soccer leave their thousands of dollars a year academy team to instead play for us.

                Comment


                  #23
                  "As unemployment goes up discretionary income for extracurricular activities will dry up."

                  Every recession has proven that two things continue to survive: (1) youth sports and (2) pet supplies. They just do. Your hypothesis is just historically inaccurate.

                  "If I lose my job even town soccer becomes a luxury."

                  They will find the $$, that's the point above. This is a capitalistic society. If there arent enough customers at the old price point, they will drop the cost until they find the sweet spot. Basic econ. Additionally, not everyone is as impacted equally. The wealthier will continue to have the $$. Soccer, for the most part, is a upper-middle class sport. The large private clubs and academies will survive, albeit not thrive in the near term. The local clubs who charge a de minimus fee will also survive bc the fee is so little.

                  "Hell, who is even going to coach?"

                  Trainers will continue to coach the big clubs/academies. They will be paid just like they were a couple months ago. Maybe they have to take a short-term haircut. In terms of the town clubs, there will be many more people available to coach due to the unemployment level rising. It may even be a bit of a advantage for them.

                  "How many people will be able to afford the luxury of donating their time?"
                  Theyre unemployed, they would have plenty of time.

                  "As for the money I spent on the current season and have lost is the same as everyone else."

                  Ok, what's your point. Not very insightful.

                  "But what town club is currently functioning now?"

                  None. What next, youre going to inform us that the sky is blue?

                  "Everyone lost a season, but in another month we will be seeing large numbers of people losing their jobs at a greater rate than we are currently."

                  We are already seeing that. 16MM or so. Things in the long term will get better. The economy will reopen and many will find new, or their previous, jobs. It's a matter of timing.

                  "Organized sports will become a luxury that most people will no longer be able to afford."

                  Highly unlikely.

                  Comment


                    #24
                    Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                    Because there will be fewer players left to even play. Clubs are going to go bankrupt with a contracting player pool. The most vulnerable clubs are the small clubs, not really any different than small business.
                    Then they just run fewer teams and hire fewer coaches for next year. Almost no clubs have salaried coaches; they're all on annual or even seasonal contracts. Every year clubs make adjustments to their team numbers and how many coaches they'll need. Most rent fields so that is adjusted by needs as well. Big clubs with a bigger office staff or maybe a mortgage to pay on their own fields will have a tougher time covering their costs. But they too can shrink to a certain extent and will probably still be ok

                    the ones that won't make it are the ones that were poorly run both in terms of finances (these aren't MBAs running clubs) and how they treat their customers. As some players have to drop out because of family finances, it opens up spots for players looking to bail out of the bad clubs into better ones

                    Comment


                      #25
                      Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                      "As unemployment goes up discretionary income for extracurricular activities will dry up."

                      Every recession has proven that two things continue to survive: (1) youth sports and (2) pet supplies. They just do. Your hypothesis is just historically inaccurate.

                      "If I lose my job even town soccer becomes a luxury."

                      They will find the $$, that's the point above. This is a capitalistic society. If there arent enough customers at the old price point, they will drop the cost until they find the sweet spot. Basic econ. Additionally, not everyone is as impacted equally. The wealthier will continue to have the $$. Soccer, for the most part, is a upper-middle class sport. The large private clubs and academies will survive, albeit not thrive in the near term. The local clubs who charge a de minimus fee will also survive bc the fee is so little.

                      "Hell, who is even going to coach?"

                      Trainers will continue to coach the big clubs/academies. They will be paid just like they were a couple months ago. Maybe they have to take a short-term haircut. In terms of the town clubs, there will be many more people available to coach due to the unemployment level rising. It may even be a bit of a advantage for them.

                      "How many people will be able to afford the luxury of donating their time?"
                      Theyre unemployed, they would have plenty of time.

                      "As for the money I spent on the current season and have lost is the same as everyone else."

                      Ok, what's your point. Not very insightful.

                      "But what town club is currently functioning now?"

                      None. What next, youre going to inform us that the sky is blue?

                      "Everyone lost a season, but in another month we will be seeing large numbers of people losing their jobs at a greater rate than we are currently."

                      We are already seeing that. 16MM or so. Things in the long term will get better. The economy will reopen and many will find new, or their previous, jobs. It's a matter of timing.

                      "Organized sports will become a luxury that most people will no longer be able to afford."

                      Highly unlikely.
                      These answers are better than what we hear from the government everyday. Put this man as President.

                      Comment


                        #26
                        Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                        It's virtually impossible to bankrupt my small club. We only collect the money needed to pay for passes, refs and the league fees. We only collect a little bit over that for field paint, nets, etc. We have no paid board members. We have no paid coaches. We don't pay for fields. We can scale up or down seamlessly so losing even half our teams doesn't hurt us financially much at all.

                        The only way we fold is not enough players to form teams, and with everyone being broke I'm betting that we actually gain more players than we lose as the people without jobs that still want their kids to play soccer leave their thousands of dollars a year academy team to instead play for us.
                        There have to kids who will play. There is every chance that a full calendar year of soccer will be missed. How many kids even bother coming back to the game if soccer, as well as other youth sports are canceled until next spring?

                        If I lose my job even your little club will be a luxury.

                        Comment


                          #27
                          Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                          "As unemployment goes up discretionary income for extracurricular activities will dry up."

                          Every recession has proven that two things continue to survive: (1) youth sports and (2) pet supplies. They just do. Your hypothesis is just historically inaccurate.

                          "If I lose my job even town soccer becomes a luxury."

                          They will find the $$, that's the point above. This is a capitalistic society. If there arent enough customers at the old price point, they will drop the cost until they find the sweet spot. Basic econ. Additionally, not everyone is as impacted equally. The wealthier will continue to have the $$. Soccer, for the most part, is a upper-middle class sport. The large private clubs and academies will survive, albeit not thrive in the near term. The local clubs who charge a de minimus fee will also survive bc the fee is so little.

                          "Hell, who is even going to coach?"

                          Trainers will continue to coach the big clubs/academies. They will be paid just like they were a couple months ago. Maybe they have to take a short-term haircut. In terms of the town clubs, there will be many more people available to coach due to the unemployment level rising. It may even be a bit of a advantage for them.

                          "How many people will be able to afford the luxury of donating their time?"
                          Theyre unemployed, they would have plenty of time.

                          "As for the money I spent on the current season and have lost is the same as everyone else."

                          Ok, what's your point. Not very insightful.

                          "But what town club is currently functioning now?"

                          None. What next, youre going to inform us that the sky is blue?

                          "Everyone lost a season, but in another month we will be seeing large numbers of people losing their jobs at a greater rate than we are currently."

                          We are already seeing that. 16MM or so. Things in the long term will get better. The economy will reopen and many will find new, or their previous, jobs. It's a matter of timing.

                          "Organized sports will become a luxury that most people will no longer be able to afford."

                          Highly unlikely.
                          When does the economy open back up?

                          How long before unemployment leads to foreclosures?

                          There will be regional pockets that will stay fairly insulated but many small clubs will go bankrupt if there is no Fall soccer.

                          And if there is no Fall soccer then that means we are not open for business. Many colleges are looking to deliver Fall classes remotely as well as some states for public school.

                          If you can point to any country who after 3-4 months of this have started to discuss reopening you might have a point. I just don't see a realistic path to reopening before a vaccine is available in December-February.

                          Anything sooner than that will be small pockets and likely scaled re-openings for certain businesses. Youth sports will be one of the last things that will be given the green light. Schools and youth sports were the first to shut down and they will be the last thing to reopen.

                          Comment


                            #28
                            Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                            "As unemployment goes up discretionary income for extracurricular activities will dry up."

                            Every recession has proven that two things continue to survive: (1) youth sports and (2) pet supplies. They just do. Your hypothesis is just historically inaccurate.

                            "If I lose my job even town soccer becomes a luxury."

                            They will find the $$, that's the point above. This is a capitalistic society. If there arent enough customers at the old price point, they will drop the cost until they find the sweet spot. Basic econ. Additionally, not everyone is as impacted equally. The wealthier will continue to have the $$. Soccer, for the most part, is a upper-middle class sport. The large private clubs and academies will survive, albeit not thrive in the near term. The local clubs who charge a de minimus fee will also survive bc the fee is so little.

                            "Hell, who is even going to coach?"

                            Trainers will continue to coach the big clubs/academies. They will be paid just like they were a couple months ago. Maybe they have to take a short-term haircut. In terms of the town clubs, there will be many more people available to coach due to the unemployment level rising. It may even be a bit of a advantage for them.

                            "How many people will be able to afford the luxury of donating their time?"
                            Theyre unemployed, they would have plenty of time.

                            "As for the money I spent on the current season and have lost is the same as everyone else."

                            Ok, what's your point. Not very insightful.

                            "But what town club is currently functioning now?"

                            None. What next, youre going to inform us that the sky is blue?

                            "Everyone lost a season, but in another month we will be seeing large numbers of people losing their jobs at a greater rate than we are currently."

                            We are already seeing that. 16MM or so. Things in the long term will get better. The economy will reopen and many will find new, or their previous, jobs. It's a matter of timing.

                            "Organized sports will become a luxury that most people will no longer be able to afford."

                            Highly unlikely.
                            "Things in the long term will get better. The economy will reopen and many will find new, or their previous, jobs. It's a matter of timing. "

                            When the company you worked for no longer exists it is kind of hard to just get that job back.

                            Moody's predicts that it could take until 2025 to regain the lost jobs as a result of Covid-19.

                            If this drags on into the summer this will make the housing crisis of 2008 look pale in comparison. This is a global problem where there are no lenders who are safe right now. But, ok, little town soccer is going to flourish.

                            Comment


                              #29
                              Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                              When does the economy open back up?

                              How long before unemployment leads to foreclosures?

                              There will be regional pockets that will stay fairly insulated but many small clubs will go bankrupt if there is no Fall soccer.

                              And if there is no Fall soccer then that means we are not open for business. Many colleges are looking to deliver Fall classes remotely as well as some states for public school.

                              If you can point to any country who after 3-4 months of this have started to discuss reopening you might have a point. I just don't see a realistic path to reopening before a vaccine is available in December-February.

                              Anything sooner than that will be small pockets and likely scaled re-openings for certain businesses. Youth sports will be one of the last things that will be given the green light. Schools and youth sports were the first to shut down and they will be the last thing to reopen.
                              There will not be fall sports. That’s obvious. Hope these clubs can make it until next spring.
                              Fingers crossed.

                              Comment


                                #30
                                "When does the economy open back up? "

                                I dont know. Id say well before a vaccine is developed, yet not as soon as Trump is signaling. Even if the government gives the go ahead, the economy wont reopen until the people are ready. I just dont know the exact timing.

                                "How long before unemployment leads to foreclosures?"

                                Evidently you arent following the economic side of this very closely. The government has already coerced the banks/servicers/financial institutions to stop foreclosures and eviction proceedings. They wont be allowed for the foreseeable future.

                                "There will be regional pockets that will stay fairly insulated but many small clubs will go bankrupt if there is no Fall soccer."

                                Why would clubs go BK? The town clubs are for all intents and purposes costless. What are their expenses? They dont have trainers to pay, no permits, no league fees, they have no significant costs. They are non-profits and rely on free labor.

                                "And if there is no Fall soccer then that means we are not open for business. Many colleges are looking to deliver Fall classes remotely as well as some states for public school."

                                There is a MASSIVE difference between kids playing soccer, where even the most intense games have 50 people in attendance and colleges where the kids live in dorms and go to classes with hundreds of others in a hall. Even if they dont play in the Fall, which I find impossible to believe, all the town clubs will survive. As I mentioned they have no expenses. The for-profit clubs will adapt. They will lay off staff and trainers. They will get loans or fold. Not all companies survive, as I mentioned in the previous message, we live in a capitalistic society. The best run and capitalized will thrive in the long term.

                                "If you can point to any country who after 3-4 months of this have started to discuss reopening you might have a point. I just don't see a realistic path to reopening before a vaccine is available in December-February."

                                You arent following this closely. The Chinese professional basketball league is now up and running again. The Korean baseball league is about to get up and running again. I am 100000% positive youth sports will begin WELL before a vaccine is developed. Assuming best case scenario, a vax takes 12-18 months. Therapeutics will be developed. In reality, there arent that many people at a youth soccer game. Social distancing will be required too. Maybe they do limit the people who attend to one family member or 2. There will be a Fall season. Spring....who knows, probably depends on whether or not Cuomo opens school. If no school, no youth soccer (or other spring sports). We are an intelligent and adaptable people, we will figure it out.

                                "Anything sooner than that will be small pockets and likely scaled re-openings for certain businesses. Youth sports will be one of the last things that will be given the green light. Schools and youth sports were the first to shut down and they will be the last thing to reopen."

                                Man are your misguided.....

                                Comment

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