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The Odds of Landing an Athletic Scholarship < odds being admitted to Harvard ??

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    #31
    Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
    2013 total HS attendance 14.7 million with a 35%+ dropout rate resulting in a senior class of approximately 2.39 million graduates with 6,500 getting into Harrrrvard or .27%.

    314 D1 schools awarding on average 3.5 girls scholarships annually = 1,099.
    223 D2 schools with women's soccer awarding on average 2.5 scholarships annually =557

    HS girls Soccer participation including all divisions is 345,000 which would result in a Senior Class of 32,035 because the gross pool is inflated buy 3 years of JV teams and a 35% drop out rate.

    It is my understanding that those D1 & 2 scholarships are typically divided by .5 over the life of the athlete therefore there are actually on average 3,313 scholarship offers available which translates to a gross availability of 10.34% or FORTY TWO TIMES greater than Harrrrvard for the entire graduating class.

    Now lets adjust the qualifications for each group to recognize there are minimum qualifications that need to be met, Taking the top 2% of Seniors as being eligible to apply to Harrravrd and you get 47,800. If 6,500 are admitted you get a 13.6 % acceptance rate for the QUALIUFIED students.

    Adjusting the qualifications for the 32,035 pool of Senior female soccer players I think it would be fair to say that at best 33% want to or have the requisite physical qualifications when you look out over all divisions and account for rural vs. urban soccer. Therefore ,you have 10,571 qualified players vying for 3,313 scholarships which results in an acceptance rate of 31.34%.

    So for the QUALIFIED in each group you are more than twice as likely to get that soccer scholarship than you are to get "into" Harrrvard!

    Now trying to make an apples to apples comparison the top 10 girl soccer programs in each division have on average 60 openings each year. To have the same odds of getting on one of those teams you have for getting into Harrrvard you have to be in the top 143 of Senior players nation wide. On a population basis that would translate 1.4 players per year from Oregon and is about what we have experienced over the past decade excluding the U of P program.

    Without dismissing the value of getting "into" Harrrvard the comparison is economically invalid. Currently 60% of all Harvard students get aid in varying amounts so if you were trying to determine the economic value of either choice you would need to exclude 40% of the Harvard acceptances who are paying the full COA of $65,000 for the 2013/14 year. If we assume the same 50% scholarship value for the other 60% receiving aid it reduces the comparison figure to 8.16% of qualified applicants receiving money to attend college.

    So when looking at just what the odds are of getting money to attend college if you're a girl in the top 1/3 of soccer skills in your age group you have nearly FOUR TIMES the likelihood of getting scholastic aid via soccer than a person in the academic top 2% of getting into and money to attend just Harrrvard.

    Of course when you factor in all of the academic scholarships available to attend the top 20 colleges nationwide as we have aded together all the soccer scholarships the number likely exceeds exceeds 45,000 meaning that if your DD is in the top 2% of her class there is a scholarship waiting!

    However,if she is not in that top 2% academically but in that top 1/3 of her soccer class she should not despair.
    Never have I read someone pull crap out of their ass of this magnitude. How can one even sit for that long to make up percentages. I bet you are in sales....and no one usually listens to you. Wowowowow. Someone feel sorry for this guy's wife.

    Comment


      #32
      Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
      For the higher level of competition.
      Oh, I get it, so when she is in college and no longer playing, she can look back and say I played higher level competition. She should be sure to put that on her resume.

      Comment


        #33
        Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
        Competition moron. Granted, I wouldn't expect a fat ass who never played competitive sports to understand this simple concept.
        A fool and his money are soon parted. You should go buy her a horse, at least you would have something tangible for those dollars and she'd like it a lot more. And at least while she is riding, she doesn't look completely overwhelmed.

        Comment


          #34
          I don't think anyone doubts how difficult it is to get into Harvard. What people do doubt is how few athletic scholarships there are available and how much that actually contributes to the total cost of attendance. Anyone in competitive soccer in order to obtain a scholarship needs a reality check. Having said that, I don't think that many people do put their kids in competitive soccer for the scholarship.

          I think most parents of competitive soccer players fall into one of two camps: 1) The parent has an obsession with the game and push their child into the system; 2) For one reason or another the child played soccer and became really good at it so the parent felt compelled to continue the child through the system.

          Comment


            #35
            Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
            Never have I read someone pull crap out of their ass of this magnitude. How can one even sit for that long to make up percentages. I bet you are in sales....and no one usually listens to you. Wowowowow. Someone feel sorry for this guy's wife.
            Translation you can't do math. The numbers of students in US High Schools participating in Girls soccer, national drop out rate, D1 & D2 schools and scholarship counts, Harvard admissions and scholarship rates are all on the web and easily verifiable.

            You may not be able to do simple math like dividing the number of HS students by 4 and then factoring in the drop out rate to figure out how many seniors graduate each year but most college graduates can.

            You may not understand that you need to divide the gross participation in girls soccer by 7 (3 years of JV plus 4 years of varsity) and then factor in the fall off/drop out rate to get the number of seniors each year but it's basic math.

            I know that the vast majority of Freshman players do not get 50% but if you talk to recruiters they will tell you to expect 50% over the 4 years beginning at 25% and ending at 75% which averages out to 50%. If you have a better way to apportion the number of scholarships over the four years then please tell TS readers how you would do it!

            You throw out insults rather than engage in the discussion or challenge a particular number or assumption.

            You want to challenge something then tell us in this state what percentage of Senior soccer players are college caliber. I said 33 % what is your number? Do you realize that if the number is smaller the odds of getting the soccer scholarship goes UP? I used 33% to be conservative.

            I drew the line of Harvard eligible Seniors at the top 2% of each class. If that number doesn't sound right to you what is the number because that is the number that is consistent with the GPA & SAT/ACT scores required for entry for 95% of annual admissions.

            Put on your thinking cap and let's see what you got other than juvenile insults!

            BTW the whole post took 1/2 hour to compile including internet research.

            Comment


              #36
              Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
              Translation you can't do math. The numbers of students in US High Schools participating in Girls soccer, national drop out rate, D1 & D2 schools and scholarship counts, Harvard admissions and scholarship rates are all on the web and easily verifiable.

              You may not be able to do simple math like dividing the number of HS students by 4 and then factoring in the drop out rate to figure out how many seniors graduate each year but most college graduates can.

              You may not understand that you need to divide the gross participation in girls soccer by 7 (3 years of JV plus 4 years of varsity) and then factor in the fall off/drop out rate to get the number of seniors each year but it's basic math.

              I know that the vast majority of Freshman players do not get 50% but if you talk to recruiters they will tell you to expect 50% over the 4 years beginning at 25% and ending at 75% which averages out to 50%. If you have a better way to apportion the number of scholarships over the four years then please tell TS readers how you would do it!

              You throw out insults rather than engage in the discussion or challenge a particular number or assumption.

              You want to challenge something then tell us in this state what percentage of Senior soccer players are college caliber. I said 33 % what is your number? Do you realize that if the number is smaller the odds of getting the soccer scholarship goes UP? I used 33% to be conservative.

              I drew the line of Harvard eligible Seniors at the top 2% of each class. If that number doesn't sound right to you what is the number because that is the number that is consistent with the GPA & SAT/ACT scores required for entry for 95% of annual admissions.

              Put on your thinking cap and let's see what you got other than juvenile insults!

              BTW the whole post took 1/2 hour to compile including internet research.
              Bravo to your mathematical acumen.

              I didn't interpret the article the same as you. There are still a few things I don't think accurately reflected the population. For one, I don't agree with the article's use of high school participants as a basis since most high school soccer players are not even close to qualified to play in college. I think it would be far more accurate to simply take all club soccer players and look at that %.

              I also think you missed the author's use of a pool of elite college admissions rather than one college standing alone. So, if you took the roughly 1600 admitted to each college and added them all together that would be the total number admitted. It is difficult to know exactly what colleges the author used in the pool. We know it included Stanford, and all the ivy league colleges as it called them out but we don't know what other "elite" colleges were represented without seeing the data.

              All that said, I agree it is virtually impossible to get into Harvard unless you have some powerful people in your family.

              Comment


                #37
                Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                Oh, I get it, so when she is in college and no longer playing, she can look back and say I played higher level competition. She should be sure to put that on her resume.
                It's not going on any resume. It's fun, like the state cup, FRWL, NWCL but better. That's all. If anything else comes from it, then great. It's simply another level of competition. Better competition. That is all.

                Dude, your dd is obviously not doing it, why do you care? Actually, don't answer that, because I don't really care what you think. Just enjoy your kid.

                Comment


                  #38
                  Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                  Bravo to your mathematical acumen.

                  I didn't interpret the article the same as you. There are still a few things I don't think accurately reflected the population. For one, I don't agree with the article's use of high school participants as a basis since most high school soccer players are not even close to qualified to play in college. I think it would be far more accurate to simply take all club soccer players and look at that %.

                  I also think you missed the author's use of a pool of elite college admissions rather than one college standing alone. So, if you took the roughly 1600 admitted to each college and added them all together that would be the total number admitted. It is difficult to know exactly what colleges the author used in the pool. We know it included Stanford, and all the ivy league colleges as it called them out but we don't know what other "elite" colleges were represented without seeing the data.

                  All that said, I agree it is virtually impossible to get into Harvard unless you have some powerful people in your family.
                  You must not have taken statistics during your lofty education. You talk about limiting the eligible HS players to those who would qualify. Doing that makes your numbers into garbage. It is only valid if you look at a large population, and there will be many in that population that don't get past the first filter.

                  Let me try to make this simple. If you use the acceptance to Harvard example. Your process would be to look only at the kids who are qualified for admission and what % of them get admitted. The valid stat is to look at % of total population. It doesn't make the picture as pretty, but at least it is a real number.

                  Comment


                    #39
                    Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                    2013 total HS attendance 14.7 million with a 35%+ dropout rate resulting in a senior class of approximately 2.39 million graduates with 6,500 getting into Harrrrvard or .27%.

                    314 D1 schools awarding on average 3.5 girls scholarships annually = 1,099.
                    223 D2 schools with women's soccer awarding on average 2.5 scholarships annually =557

                    HS girls Soccer participation including all divisions is 345,000 which would result in a Senior Class of 32,035 because the gross pool is inflated buy 3 years of JV teams and a 35% drop out rate.

                    It is my understanding that those D1 & 2 scholarships are typically divided by .5 over the life of the athlete therefore there are actually on average 3,313 scholarship offers available which translates to a gross availability of 10.34% or FORTY TWO TIMES greater than Harrrrvard for the entire graduating class.

                    Now lets adjust the qualifications for each group to recognize there are minimum qualifications that need to be met, Taking the top 2% of Seniors as being eligible to apply to Harrravrd and you get 47,800. If 6,500 are admitted you get a 13.6 % acceptance rate for the QUALIUFIED students.

                    Adjusting the qualifications for the 32,035 pool of Senior female soccer players I think it would be fair to say that at best 33% want to or have the requisite physical qualifications when you look out over all divisions and account for rural vs. urban soccer. Therefore ,you have 10,571 qualified players vying for 3,313 scholarships which results in an acceptance rate of 31.34%.

                    So for the QUALIFIED in each group you are more than twice as likely to get that soccer scholarship than you are to get "into" Harrrvard!

                    Now trying to make an apples to apples comparison the top 10 girl soccer programs in each division have on average 60 openings each year. To have the same odds of getting on one of those teams you have for getting into Harrrvard you have to be in the top 143 of Senior players nation wide. On a population basis that would translate 1.4 players per year from Oregon and is about what we have experienced over the past decade excluding the U of P program.

                    Without dismissing the value of getting "into" Harrrvard the comparison is economically invalid. Currently 60% of all Harvard students get aid in varying amounts so if you were trying to determine the economic value of either choice you would need to exclude 40% of the Harvard acceptances who are paying the full COA of $65,000 for the 2013/14 year. If we assume the same 50% scholarship value for the other 60% receiving aid it reduces the comparison figure to 8.16% of qualified applicants receiving money to attend college.

                    So when looking at just what the odds are of getting money to attend college if you're a girl in the top 1/3 of soccer skills in your age group you have nearly FOUR TIMES the likelihood of getting scholastic aid via soccer than a person in the academic top 2% of getting into and money to attend just Harrrvard.

                    Of course when you factor in all of the academic scholarships available to attend the top 20 colleges nationwide as we have aded together all the soccer scholarships the number likely exceeds exceeds 45,000 meaning that if your DD is in the top 2% of her class there is a scholarship waiting!

                    However,if she is not in that top 2% academically but in that top 1/3 of her soccer class she should not despair.
                    What if she is both?!

                    Comment


                      #40
                      Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                      You must not have taken statistics during your lofty education. You talk about limiting the eligible HS players to those who would qualify. Doing that makes your numbers into garbage. It is only valid if you look at a large population, and there will be many in that population that don't get past the first filter.

                      Let me try to make this simple. If you use the acceptance to Harvard example. Your process would be to look only at the kids who are qualified for admission and what % of them get admitted. The valid stat is to look at % of total population. It doesn't make the picture as pretty, but at least it is a real number.
                      Actually I took 2 years of statistics and made A's in all 4 classes.... memorize and purge. While I don't profess to be a statistician (hard to spell too !!), I can assure you that statistics are formed via assumptions and you as the person developing a theory can apply them and try to rationalize them as you see fit. So, let me weigh in on my previous thoughts since you are having difficulty understanding the paragraph. I will oversimplify to say that as well as the poster I was responding to developed and rationalized their hypotheses on the basic statistics that I (notice I never resorted to name calling or insinuation of stupidity) was not in agreement with how the comparison was made with respect to these two very different scenarios, 1) playing soccer on a college scholarship and 2) gaining admission to an elite college; but I was still in agreement with one part of that comparison --> it is very difficult to gain admission to an elite college.

                      What is it that you are trying to prove? Maybe we can discuss it rationally in a blog format and we don't have to go into name calling. I thought blogging was the exchange of ideas not insults, but if I have offended you in any way you have my sincere apology.

                      Comment


                        #41
                        Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                        Actually I took 2 years of statistics and made A's in all 4 classes.... memorize and purge. While I don't profess to be a statistician (hard to spell too !!), I can assure you that statistics are formed via assumptions and you as the person developing a theory can apply them and try to rationalize them as you see fit. So, let me weigh in on my previous thoughts since you are having difficulty understanding the paragraph. I will oversimplify to say that as well as the poster I was responding to developed and rationalized their hypotheses on the basic statistics that I (notice I never resorted to name calling or insinuation of stupidity) was not in agreement with how the comparison was made with respect to these two very different scenarios, 1) playing soccer on a college scholarship and 2) gaining admission to an elite college; but I was still in agreement with one part of that comparison --> it is very difficult to gain admission to an elite college.

                        What is it that you are trying to prove? Maybe we can discuss it rationally in a blog format and we don't have to go into name calling. I thought blogging was the exchange of ideas not insults, but if I have offended you in any way you have my sincere apology.
                        I'll help both of you. It's very hard (or you have to be extraordinarily gifted/lucky) to do anything that is truly elite whether it's getting into an elite university, or playing a competitive sport at an elite level. That's what elite means. Elite is overused a lot -- particularly in this forum.

                        Comment


                          #42
                          Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                          I'll help both of you. It's very hard (or you have to be extraordinarily gifted/lucky) to do anything that is truly elite whether it's getting into an elite university, or playing a competitive sport at an elite level. That's what elite means. Elite is overused a lot -- particularly in this forum.
                          My undergrad was selective, my grad program was highly, highly selective. I think the latter would qualify as elite as it was ranked #1 for a number of years. I doubt I could get into either of them today. Heck, I might struggle to get into Oregon or Oregon State today. Maybe Western Oregon would take me.

                          Comment


                            #43
                            ???

                            Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                            Mens sports generate the vast majority of the revenue and even then, that's mostly football. There are really three difference types of sports programs: mens, womens, and football.
                            The majority of football programs do not generate enough money to pay for themselves, let alone help pay for other sports. In FBS, with 128 teams, 50% to 60% do generate positive cash flows. In FCS, with 124 teams, 4% generate positive cash flows. (FBS is the best teams, FCS are the lesser programs of the two.) Basketball at the D-1 level has 5+% generating positive cash flows.

                            Comment


                              #44
                              Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                              The majority of football programs do not generate enough money to pay for themselves, let alone help pay for other sports. In FBS, with 128 teams, 50% to 60% do generate positive cash flows. In FCS, with 124 teams, 4% generate positive cash flows. (FBS is the best teams, FCS are the lesser programs of the two.) Basketball at the D-1 level has 5+% generating positive cash flows.
                              The post said revenue not profit. Plus, for those that are profitable, like Oregon, the profits are immense. The largess lavished on football spills over to other sports programs. The infrastructure such training and practice facilities, as well as academic support programs, wouldn't exist at the level they do without football programs and the TV revenue they generate.

                              Other than even fewer men's basketball programs, and maybe a very few women's programs, there's not even an argument that those programs generate excess revenue or other intangible benefits. I can think of at least one good example of a school really benefiting from a basketball program -- Gonzaga. Before it's basketball program became highly successful, most people hadn't even heard of it. Now it's enrollment is far larger and it's athletic facilities, including those for soccer, are top notch.

                              There is more to treating football differently than just cash flow on an annual basis. Big time football creates a college atmosphere that can't be replicated by other sports. It also adds value that doesn't show up in your analysis such as goodwill to the university, alumni contributions, increased enrollment, advertising, etc. There really isn't a women's sports analog.

                              Comment


                                #45
                                Shared Revenue

                                Each Pac 12 school will get $19 million from their TV contract and every school in the big 5 will get another $5 million from the new play off format.

                                Think about that the next time they want to increase the price of tickets!

                                Comment

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