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Betting companies are now somehow a bell weather for voter's political sentiment? They should stick to sports.
538 has Biden slightly ahead - they actually do this for a living
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
Biden is still ahead 7pts nationally and either ahead or tied in several swing states - and if it weren't for Rasmussen the gap would be larger https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
Trump's job approval is stubbornly unmoved at -10pt https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html
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Originally posted by Unregistered View PostBetting companies are now somehow a bell weather for voter's political sentiment? They should stick to sports.
538 has Biden slightly ahead - they actually do this for a living
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
Biden is still ahead 7pts nationally and either ahead or tied in several swing states - and if it weren't for Rasmussen the gap would be larger https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
Trump's job approval is stubbornly unmoved at -10pt https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html
The guys that you claim do this for a living had Hilary with a 71% change of winning on election morning 2016:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
Even worse is that prediction went up to 95% as they saw exit poll results come in.
Rasmussen had the most accurate national poll on election day 2016:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5952.html
It's also important to note:
1) Biden likely to win a higher percentage of the popular vote than Hilary. Blue states moving more left. This means Biden will need a higher margin on nation polls on election day than 2016. He will probably obtain a 3-4% edge of the popular vote which means he'll need 4%-7% margin in national polls on election day.
2) Trump is ahead of Biden versus Hilary at this same point in time in 2016:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...-2020-vs-2016/
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