Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Ooops...discrepancy on the unemployment numbers

Collapse
X
  •  
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Ooops...discrepancy on the unemployment numbers

    7:35 p.m. EDT Friday, June 5, 2020

    When the official US government employment report for May was released on Friday, it included a note at the bottom indicating that there had been a major “error” and that the unemployment rate should probably be above the rate of 13.3% widely reported.

    The Special Note stated that if this misclassification had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than that reported”, which means that the unemployment rate would be ” about 16.3% in May.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that publishes monthly employment reports, said it was working to fix the problem.

    “BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating the reasons why this classification error continues to occur and are taking further steps to resolve the problem,” said a note at the bottom of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

    Some saw this as a sign that President Donald Trump or one of his staff could have tweaked the data to improve it, especially since most forecasters had predicted that the unemployment rate would be close to 20% in May, compared to 14.7% in April. . But economists and former BLS leaders from all political backgrounds strongly rejected the idea that Trump or anyone else had tampered with the data.

    Economists say the BLS was trying to be as transparent as possible about the difficulty of collecting real-time data during a pandemic. The BLS admitted that some people who should have been classified as “temporary unemployed” during the closure were instead wrongly classified as employed but “absent” from work for “other reasons”.

    #2
    Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
    7:35 p.m. EDT Friday, June 5, 2020

    When the official US government employment report for May was released on Friday, it included a note at the bottom indicating that there had been a major “error” and that the unemployment rate should probably be above the rate of 13.3% widely reported.

    The Special Note stated that if this misclassification had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than that reported”, which means that the unemployment rate would be ” about 16.3% in May.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that publishes monthly employment reports, said it was working to fix the problem.

    “BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating the reasons why this classification error continues to occur and are taking further steps to resolve the problem,” said a note at the bottom of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

    Some saw this as a sign that President Donald Trump or one of his staff could have tweaked the data to improve it, especially since most forecasters had predicted that the unemployment rate would be close to 20% in May, compared to 14.7% in April. . But economists and former BLS leaders from all political backgrounds strongly rejected the idea that Trump or anyone else had tampered with the data.

    Economists say the BLS was trying to be as transparent as possible about the difficulty of collecting real-time data during a pandemic. The BLS admitted that some people who should have been classified as “temporary unemployed” during the closure were instead wrongly classified as employed but “absent” from work for “other reasons”.
    Of course the WH won't have a press conference to highlight that "error." No wonder the numbers didn't make sense, plus they're normally revised after the fact once better data comes in.

    I hope it wasn't intentional and I don't think it was. But it also points to the administration's rush to present any good news - malaria drug, the google (google said huh?) website, tests that weren't there...Just slow down a minute and double check things. Not too much to ask is it?

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
      Of course the WH won't have a press conference to highlight that "error." No wonder the numbers didn't make sense, plus they're normally revised after the fact once better data comes in.

      I hope it wasn't intentional and I don't think it was. But it also points to the administration's rush to present any good news - malaria drug, the google (google said huh?) website, tests that weren't there...Just slow down a minute and double check things. Not too much to ask is it?
      Old news....new that Friday. So some people were in the wrong category....happens every month. Furloughed people are coming back, I expect June to see a huge pick up. Stock market has it right

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
        Old news....new that Friday. So some people were in the wrong category....happens every month. Furloughed people are coming back, I expect June to see a huge pick up. Stock market has it right
        Wasent old when reported, it was further verified to be completely off later that evening after the Markets closed.
        I expect a dip on Monday but I could be wrong.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
          Wasent old when reported, it was further verified to be completely off later that evening after the Markets closed.
          I expect a dip on Monday but I could be wrong.
          BLS and other reporting agencies always revise numbers but often if its barely noticed because its weeks even months later. We definitely won't see the White House issuing a clarification 😃

          Even though 16.3% is better than expected it is should be treated with much caution. We don't know what will happen when PPP funds run out. Many who still have jobs have had hours and wages cut. It also doesn't capture the economic pain of teens and college students who can't find summer work. Recent college grads also can't find work and won't be counted; some who had offers saw them rescinded. Businesses will be extremely tight with hiring and spending for quite awhile, wondering if a 2nd wave will hit. The worst is probably over but it's way too early to dance

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
            BLS and other reporting agencies always revise numbers but often if its barely noticed because its weeks even months later. We definitely won't see the White House issuing a clarification 😃

            Even though 16.3% is better than expected it is should be treated with much caution. We don't know what will happen when PPP funds run out. Many who still have jobs have had hours and wages cut. It also doesn't capture the economic pain of teens and college students who can't find summer work. Recent college grads also can't find work and won't be counted; some who had offers saw them rescinded. Businesses will be extremely tight with hiring and spending for quite awhile, wondering if a 2nd wave will hit. The worst is probably over but it's way too early to dance
            The data isn’t wrong. The discrepancy is how do you count workers who are still getting paid, but not working. Are they employed or not? If you are measuring work force productivity, you would want to exclude them since they aren’t producing anything. If you want to count people not making a wage, you would want to exclude them because they are being paid.

            Stop trying to make it fit your conspiracy theory. You are just cnn mindless liberal sheep.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
              BLS and other reporting agencies always revise numbers but often if its barely noticed because its weeks even months later. We definitely won't see the White House issuing a clarification 😃

              Even though 16.3% is better than expected it is should be treated with much caution. We don't know what will happen when PPP funds run out. Many who still have jobs have had hours and wages cut. It also doesn't capture the economic pain of teens and college students who can't find summer work. Recent college grads also can't find work and won't be counted; some who had offers saw them rescinded. Businesses will be extremely tight with hiring and spending for quite awhile, wondering if a 2nd wave will hit. The worst is probably over but it's way too early to dance
              You are an idiot and speak in generalities. How many grads had offers of employment rescinded? Please provide facts. Please express it as a percentage of all college grads from this year. What are we talking about? How material? Are they not working because dem govs won’t let them for fear of a virus that has passed?

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                You are an idiot and speak in generalities. How many grads had offers of employment rescinded? Please provide facts. Please express it as a percentage of all college grads from this year. What are we talking about? How material? Are they not working because dem govs won’t let them for fear of a virus that has passed?
                not the poster. i have a grad from last year who thankfully is still employed. several of their friends no longer are. government stats aren't really kept on recent college grads. data is collected via other sources and wont' be readily available right now. there are plenty of anecdotal stories out there and I know several kids as well. a few had their start dates pushed back by a few months (good news, but fingers crossed it still happens). there is some data collected on teens, summer jobs etc but it's sporadic and definitely won't be up to date with all that's going on. but think about all the summer jobs that won't happen this year - restaurants are at best half staff (and they'll be hiring back regular staffers first) or summer camp counselors (one of mine lost that job because it was cancelled). then there's all the on campus jobs college kids lost in march and summer jobs and internships they've lost. some have to have those jobs to afford college expenses.


                there was this: "Internships for college students are among the job opportunities hard hit as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, with many offers abruptly rescinded and no offer of compensation. That’s according to a new survey from employment platform Yello that finds 64% of student internships that have been canceled did not provide any form of alternative offer. Eleven percent of students said that they have been offered a postponed internship; 7% said they were guaranteed a final round interview next year; and 6% a full-time offer next year"

                https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/64pe...pensation.html

                multiple articles on grads

                https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...bs-internships
                https://www.forbes.com/sites/poetsan.../#78b598b63ffb
                https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/new-...rescinded.html
                https://www.today.com/money/rescinde...ndemic-t177833
                https://www.times-standard.com/2020/...ng-job-market/


                The prior recession had a long term impact on grads, finding work and their level of pay

                "Meanwhile, those respondents who got jobs since the recession began are making less than their peers who graduated in 2006 and 2007. The difference amounts to "about 10 percent lower earnings," says Columbia University economist Till von Wachter. His research indicates that the depressed earnings can last a decade or more, although that effect can vary."

                https://www.times-standard.com/2020/...ng-job-market/
                https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...class-of-2008/
                https://money.cnn.com/2011/05/17/new...tion/index.htm

                NYC cuts 75,000 summer jobs for teens/young adults https://ny.chalkbeat.org/2020/4/7/21...avirus-fallout

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                  not the poster. i have a grad from last year who thankfully is still employed. several of their friends no longer are. government stats aren't really kept on recent college grads. data is collected via other sources and wont' be readily available right now. there are plenty of anecdotal stories out there and I know several kids as well. a few had their start dates pushed back by a few months (good news, but fingers crossed it still happens). there is some data collected on teens, summer jobs etc but it's sporadic and definitely won't be up to date with all that's going on. but think about all the summer jobs that won't happen this year - restaurants are at best half staff (and they'll be hiring back regular staffers first) or summer camp counselors (one of mine lost that job because it was cancelled). then there's all the on campus jobs college kids lost in march and summer jobs and internships they've lost. some have to have those jobs to afford college expenses.


                  there was this: "Internships for college students are among the job opportunities hard hit as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, with many offers abruptly rescinded and no offer of compensation. That’s according to a new survey from employment platform Yello that finds 64% of student internships that have been canceled did not provide any form of alternative offer. Eleven percent of students said that they have been offered a postponed internship; 7% said they were guaranteed a final round interview next year; and 6% a full-time offer next year"

                  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/64pe...pensation.html

                  multiple articles on grads

                  https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...bs-internships
                  https://www.forbes.com/sites/poetsan.../#78b598b63ffb
                  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/new-...rescinded.html
                  https://www.today.com/money/rescinde...ndemic-t177833
                  https://www.times-standard.com/2020/...ng-job-market/


                  The prior recession had a long term impact on grads, finding work and their level of pay

                  "Meanwhile, those respondents who got jobs since the recession began are making less than their peers who graduated in 2006 and 2007. The difference amounts to "about 10 percent lower earnings," says Columbia University economist Till von Wachter. His research indicates that the depressed earnings can last a decade or more, although that effect can vary."

                  https://www.times-standard.com/2020/...ng-job-market/
                  https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...class-of-2008/
                  https://money.cnn.com/2011/05/17/new...tion/index.htm

                  NYC cuts 75,000 summer jobs for teens/young adults https://ny.chalkbeat.org/2020/4/7/21...avirus-fallout
                  Hey, Mr Links.....what did you do google lost teen jobs and post every link. Do you really think anyone is going to click on all those links? You wasted your time. Anyway, I am not talkig summer waitress jobs. Talking grads. You think McKinsey or Goldman hired grads and wont take them at all now?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                    Hey, Mr Links.....what did you do google lost teen jobs and post every link. Do you really think anyone is going to click on all those links? You wasted your time. Anyway, I am not talkig summer waitress jobs. Talking grads. You think McKinsey or Goldman hired grads and wont take them at all now?
                    Poster had several articles about grads. Do you think a database existed such a measure? It does not. My company cut half the summer interns, the rest are remote working for only 8 weeks because like school, remote interning it isn't the same. Cut 2 college hires and postponed the starts until Oct1 for the 3 they kept. Great time to travel. Oh,wait.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                      Poster had several articles about grads. Do you think a database existed such a measure? It does not. My company cut half the summer interns, the rest are remote working for only 8 weeks because like school, remote interning it isn't the same. Cut 2 college hires and postponed the starts until Oct1 for the 3 they kept. Great time to travel. Oh,wait.
                      Sorry, didn’t click on the ten links. You use interns as your main example. Not grads. Then you talk about two hires that were dropped. Doesn’t really support your arguement as two were kept. Looks like they were not top 50 percent. Bottom level talent is always expendable

                      Comment

                      Previously entered content was automatically saved. Restore or Discard.
                      Auto-Saved
                      x
                      Insert: Thumbnail Small Medium Large Fullsize Remove  
                      x
                      Working...
                      X